中国超大城市外来人口流入与空间分布研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 18:46

  本文选题：中国超大城市 + 外来人口　； 参考：《天津大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：超大城市是外来人口最重要的聚集承载区域,外来人口正成为关乎超大城市持续发展和形态再造的重要力量。在中国日益成为超大城市制造国的时代背景下,在外来人口问题日益成为中国超大城市“城市病”重要诱因的发展进程中,本文以北京市为例,通过初步构建中国超大城市外来人口流入的动力机制模型和空间分布影响机制,对中国超大城市外来人口流入与空间分布进行了专题研究,主要结论与贡献有以下四点:第一,通过以四大直辖市为例,特别是比较京沪两大强势吸引中心的吸引作用空间模式,发现中国超大城市外来人口流入具有的总体特征。一是中国超大城市是外来人口的主要流入地,而且这种趋势仍在加强。二是中国超大城市吸引外来人口流入与其发展阶段和发展水平有着重要关系。天津、重庆等相对不够发达的超大城市在吸引外来人口方面还有巨大的潜力,而北京、上海、广州、深圳等超大城市则随着其发展水平和人口规模的持续提高很可能进入外来人口流入相对平稳的新阶段。三是对京津沪三大直辖市外来人口流入影响因素进行全要素分析,发现中国超大城市外来人口流入的影响因素正在从流入地的拉力作用主导向流出地的推力作用主导转变,其中经济因素在中国超大城市外来人口流入过程中起着主导性作用,距离这一空间因素对中国超大城市外来人口流入具有直接重要影响,社会网络这一社会关系因素对中国超大城市外来人口流入具有显著重要影响。第二,本文通过整合古典经济学的推拉模型与发展经济学的非均衡劳动力市场模型两种理论,考虑超大城市外来人口流入的基本面与关键影响因素,以北京市为例,创造性地初步搭建起中国超大城市外来人口流入的动力机制,即基于滤网功能增强的需求支撑平台的四要素驱动模型。这一模型认为,外来人口是北京市经济社会发展的重要力量、外来人口劳动贡献率显著高于户籍人口劳动贡献率的基本事实,构成了北京市外来人口流入的基本面意义的需求空间;而外来人口流入的边际贡献与边际成本,决定了在北京吸引外来人口流入的平台上必然会添加不断增强自我筛选功能的滤网;而通过对基于基本需求空间的北京市外来人口流入的关键影响因素的识别,发现外来就业人口相对集中的产业发展、外来人口社会网络、可达便利性与公共服务差距等四大因素是北京市吸引外来人口流入的关键因素。通过对中国超大城市生成机制及资源配置方式的比较,本文提出,以北京市为例建立起来的基于滤网功能增强的需求支撑平台的四要素驱动模型,对于解释中国超大城市外来人口流入的动力机制的典型性与相对普适性。第三,中国超大城市外来人口空间分布的总体特征可以形象地概括为亮斑散落的异化同心圆,而且趋向于继续维持这种“大外移、小聚集”即整体向外迁移又在重点区域相对集中的态势。一方面,外来人口集中增长圈趋于外移,而且这种基本结构相对稳定,很难被根本突破;另一方面,外来人口分布具有显著空间集聚性结构,特别是快速发展的近郊区以及沿重要交通线或开发线延伸的区域较多出现外来人口聚集规模大、比例高的典型街道(乡镇或者地区)及群落,而且聚集区外来人口规模明显变大。第四,提出了基于产业发展与就业机会、区域开发与城市建设、居住空间与住房选择、社会网络与自我服务、政策供给与政府管理等五个主要因素或者谓之“五力”的中国超大城市外来人口空间分布简约模型。以北京市为例进行的分析表明,这个影响机制具有较好的解释力,诸影响因素的作用结果都相当一致地指向了,外来人口空间分布趋向于继续维持这种“大外移、小聚集”即整体向外迁移又在重点区域相对集中的态势。中国超大城市相似的发展模式和共有的政经优势,决定了以北京为例的分析结果和上述作用机制对于中国超大城市具有相对普遍的解释力。
[Abstract]:The large city is the most important gathering and carrying area of the foreign population. The foreign population is becoming an important force for the sustainable development and reengineering of the super cities. In the era of China becoming a super city manufacturing country, the problem of foreign population has become an important cause of the "urban disease" in the super city of China. Taking Beijing as an example, this paper makes a special study on the inflow and spatial distribution of foreign population in the super large cities of China by constructing the dynamic mechanism model of the inflow of foreign population in China's super large cities and the spatial distribution mechanism. The main conclusions and contributions are four points as follows: first, by taking the four municipalities directly under the central government as an example, especially in Beijing. The general characteristics of the inflow of foreign population in the super large cities of China are found in the spatial pattern of the attraction of the two dominant attraction centers in Shanghai. First, the large cities in China are the main inflow areas of the foreign population, and the trend is still strengthening. Two is the focus of the large cities in China to attract foreign population inflow with their development stage and level of development. Tianjin, Chongqing and other relatively undeveloped super cities have great potential in attracting foreign population. While Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other super cities are likely to enter the new stage of foreign population inflow with the continuous improvement of their development level and population size. Three is the three municipalities directly under the central government of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai. The influence factors of the influx of foreign population are analyzed by all factors. It is found that the factors affecting the influx of foreign population in the super large cities of China are changing from the leading force of the inflow force to the outflow field, and the economic factors play a leading role in the flow of foreign population in the super large cities of China. The social network has a significant influence on the inflow of foreign population in the super large cities of China. Social network has a significant influence on the inflow of foreign population in the super large cities of China. Second, this article is based on the integration of the two theories of the model of the classical economics and the non equilibrium labor market model of the economics of development. The basic aspect and key influencing factors of the inflow of urban foreign population, taking Beijing as an example, creatively set up the dynamic mechanism of the inflow of foreign population in the super large cities of China, that is, the four factor driving model based on the enhanced demand support platform based on the filter function. This model holds that the foreign population is the important economic and social development of the city. Strength, the labor contribution rate of the foreign population is significantly higher than the basic fact of the labor contribution rate of the census register population, which constitutes the basic demand space for the inflow of foreign population in Beijing, while the marginal contribution and marginal cost of the inflow of foreign population determines the inevitable addition of the increasing self on the platform in which Beijing attracts the influx of foreign population. Through the identification of the key factors affecting the influx of foreign population in Beijing based on the basic demand space, it is found that the four major factors, such as the relatively concentrated industrial development of the foreign employment population, the social network of the foreign population, the accessibility and the public service gap, are the key factors for Beijing to attract the influx of foreign population. By comparing the generation mechanism of China's super large cities and the way of resource allocation, the four factor driving model based on the demand support platform based on the filter function enhanced in Beijing is proposed in this paper, which is typical and relative universality for explaining the dynamic mechanism of the inflow of foreign population in China's super cities. Third, China is oversized. The overall characteristics of the spatial distribution of urban foreign population can be summarized as the alienated concentric circle of bright spots, and the tendency to continue to maintain this "big shift, small aggregation", that is, the overall outward migration and the relative concentration in the key areas. On the one hand, the concentrated growth circle of the foreign population tends to move out, and this basic structure is relative. It is stable and difficult to be fundamentally broken; on the other hand, the distribution of foreign population has a significant spatial agglomeration structure, especially in the rapid development of suburban areas and in areas extending along important traffic lines or development lines. Fourth, based on industrial development and employment opportunities, regional development and urban construction, residential space and housing selection, social network and self-service, policy supply and government management, five main factors, such as "five forces" in China, a simplified model of the spatial distribution of foreign population in the super city of China. The city of Beijing The analysis shows that the influence mechanism has good explanatory power and the effect results of all the factors are quite consistent. The spatial distribution of the foreign population tends to maintain this "big shift, small aggregation", that is, the overall outward migration and the relative concentration in the key areas. The similar development model of the super large cities in China. The analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the political economy and the common political and economic factors in Beijing determines that the analysis results and the above mechanism of action in China have relatively general explanatory power for China's super large cities.

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D631.42
，

本文编号：1778984