土地流转、户籍制度改革与中国城市化:理论与模拟

发布时间：2018-07-04 21:49

本文选题：土地流转 + 户籍制度改革　；参考：《经济研究》2017年06期

【摘要】：本文试图建立一个统一的理论框架,在考虑到劳动力异质性的基础上分析土地制度、户籍制度和城市化的关系。为此,本文构建一个包含农村和城市两类异质劳动力以及农村和城市两类区域用地的内生城市化模型,引入土地流转和人口迁移的限制,研究土地制度和户籍制度改革对城市化和居民福利的影响。模型理论分析表明:(1)在严格的土地控制和户籍限制下,只有拥有较高人力资本的农村劳动力会迁往城市;(2)无论是允许土地流转还是户籍制度松绑,将有更多农村劳动力迁往城市,城市劳动力产出增加,农村劳动力福利大幅改善,城市劳动力的福利仅有少许下降,城市化率提高。反事实检验发现:允许1单位农村"宅基地"流转置换为0.5单位城市建设用地,则2000年和2011年城市化率比实际值分别提高1个和2.5个百分点;若劳动力摩擦程度整体下降0.3个单位,则2000年城市化率比真实值提高2个百分点,2011年提高3个百分点。本文的政策启示为:土地流转和户籍制度松绑的联合改革能够加快中国城市化进程及促进城市化红利的共享。
[Abstract]:This paper attempts to establish a unified theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between land system, household registration system and urbanization on the basis of considering the heterogeneity of labor force. Therefore, this paper constructs an endogenous urbanization model, which includes rural and urban heterogeneous labor force and rural and urban regional land, and introduces the restrictions of land circulation and population migration. This paper studies the impact of land system and household registration system reform on urbanization and residents' welfare. The model theory analysis shows that: (1) under the strict land control and household registration restriction, only the rural labor force with higher human capital will move to the city; (2) whether the land transfer is allowed or the household registration system is relaxed, More rural labor will move to cities, urban labor output will increase, rural labor welfare will improve substantially, the welfare of urban labor will decline only slightly, and urbanization rate will increase. The counterfactual test shows that if one unit of rural "homestead" is allowed to be replaced with 0.5 units of urban construction land, the urbanization rate in 2000 and 2011 will increase by 1 and 2.5 percentage points respectively compared with the actual value; If the degree of labor friction is reduced by 0.3 units, the urbanization rate will increase by 2 percentage points in 2000 and 3 percentage points in 2011. The policy implications of this paper are as follows: the joint reform of land circulation and household registration system can accelerate the urbanization process and promote the sharing of urbanization dividend in China.
【作者单位】：复旦大学中国研究院;上海财经大学经济学院;上海财经大学国际工商管理学院;
【基金】：上海财经大学科研创新项目(CXJJ-2014-374)的资助
【分类号】：D631.42;F299.2;F301.2

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