基于案例推理的群体性事件智能决策支持WEB系统研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 14:58

本文选题：案例推理 + 群体性事件　；参考：《情报杂志》2017年04期

【摘要】：[目的/意义]我国进入全面深化改革的攻坚阶段,国际国内形势空前复杂。随着互联网技术的发展,群体性事件又出现了诸多值得关注的新特点,要求决策者做到面对事件,实时解算、随机应变、因地制宜,当前群体性事件计算机辅助决策的应用非常有限,基于WEB服务的决策系统亟待研究和开发。[方法/过程]针对群体性事件涉及到的非结构化数据,采用基于案例推理的智能决策支持方法,提取群体性事件的特征要素,整理建立案例数据库,用层次分析法和贝叶斯理论确定特征要素权重,用K-最近邻法进行相似度计算,综合利用信息技术与智能决策技术,对事件信息进行有效处理,预测其发展态势及未来可能的发展情景,并实时形成可操作性的应急决策方案,预防和控制群体性事件进一步发展,实现有效应急决策管理。[结果/结论]设计基于.net平台的SQL Server+WCF+Silverlight的Web服务系统,包含案例管理、案例推理、用户管理、交流学习和系统帮助5个模块,以求成为政府管理者,决策处置群体性事件,整理总结相关经验原则和学习的助手。
[Abstract]:Objective / significance: China has entered the critical stage of deepening reform in an all-round way, and the international and domestic situation is unprecedented and complex. With the development of Internet technology, group events have many new characteristics that deserve attention. They require decision-makers to face events, solve them in real time, adapt to the situation and adapt to local conditions. At present, the application of group event computer aided decision is very limited, and the decision system based on Web service needs to be researched and developed urgently. [method / process] in view of the unstructured data involved in group events, an intelligent decision support method based on case-based reasoning is used to extract the characteristic elements of group events and to organize and establish case database. The weights of feature elements are determined by analytic hierarchy process and Bayesian theory, and the similarity degree is calculated by using K-nearest neighbor method, and the event information is effectively processed by using information technology and intelligent decision technology. It predicts its development situation and possible development scenarios in the future and forms an operational emergency decision plan in real time to prevent and control the further development of group events and to realize effective emergency decision management. [results / conclusion] A Web service system of SQL Server WCF Silverlight based on .net platform is designed, which includes five modules: case management, case-based reasoning, user management, communication learning and system help, in order to become a government administrator and make decisions to deal with mass events. Collate and summarize relevant experience principles and learning assistants.
【作者单位】：中国人民武装警察部队学院;天津交通职业学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“公共安全视角下网络舆情风险建模与对策研究”(编号:15CXW015) 公安部理论与软科学项目“基于网络舆情综合研判的群体性事件预警研究”(编号:2015LLYJWJXY034) 河北统计科学研究计划重点项目“大数据环境下网络舆情数据分析与决策研究”(编号:2016HZ09) 武警学院博士科研创新计划课题“面向突发事件的微博舆情数据监测与分析模型研究”(编号:BSCX201608)
【分类号】：D631.43

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