美国退出《巴黎协定》的原因、影响及中国的对策
发布时间：2018-09-19 08:01
【摘要】：综合应用定性与定量分析方法,分析美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》的原因,评估美国退出《巴黎协定》对《巴黎协定》履约前景的影响并提出中国的应对策略。美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》是全球气候治理的重大事件,将对《巴黎协定》的履约产生多重影响,包括将对《巴黎协定》的普遍性构成严重伤害,动摇以《巴黎协定》为核心的国际气候治理体制的基础;将导致《巴黎协定》履约中的领导力赤字问题显著恶化;可能引发不良示范效应,降低国际气候合作信心;将会对其他地区碳排放空间形成不可忽视的挤压,进而推高其他地区碳减排成本;美国大幅削减国际气候援助资金将削弱发展中国家减缓和适应气候变化的能力;美国延迟采取气候行动可能导致全球减排错失最佳时间窗口;美国大幅削减气候变化基础研究经费将对未来全球气候科学研究产生不利影响,进而影响《巴黎协定》履约谈判的权威性等,最后显著加大实现温控目标的难度,甚至导致目标无法实现。就全球气候治理的全局而言,全球气候治理的框架不会坍塌,但确实会受到动摇;全球气候治理的进程不会逆转,但确实会迟滞。美国宣布退出《巴黎协定》使中国面临多重挑战,其中之一是中国面临急剧上升的期望中国承担全球气候治理领导的国际压力。为此,中国对内应实现国家自主贡献的上限目标,对外应积极重建全球气候治理集体领导体制,即用C5取代G2,同时继续努力改变美国对气候变化的消极立场。
[Abstract]:By using qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper analyzes the reasons why the United States announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, evaluates the impact of the withdrawal of the United States on the prospect of the Paris Agreement and puts forward China's countermeasures. The announcement of the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement is a major event in global climate governance that will have multiple implications for the implementation of the Paris Agreement, including serious harm to the universality of the Paris Agreement, Shake the foundations of the international climate governance system with the Paris Agreement at its core; will lead to a significant deterioration of the leadership deficit in the implementation of the Paris Agreement; may trigger adverse demonstration effects and reduce confidence in international climate cooperation; There will be an unnegligible squeeze on carbon emissions in other regions, which will push up the cost of reducing carbon emissions in other regions; a sharp reduction in international climate aid funding by the United States will weaken the ability of developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change; The delay in climate action by the United States could lead to missing the best window of time for global emissions reductions; a sharp reduction in funding for basic research on climate change in the United States will have adverse effects on future global climate science research. Then it affects the authority of the Paris Agreement implementation negotiation, and finally increases the difficulty of achieving the temperature control target, and even leads to the failure to achieve the target. In the overall context of global climate governance, the global climate governance framework will not collapse, but it will be shaken; the process of global climate governance will not be reversed, but it will lag. One of the many challenges facing China as the United States announces its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is the sharp rise in expectations that China will assume international pressure to lead global climate governance. For this reason, China should realize the upper limit goal of national independent contribution at home and abroad should actively rebuild the collective leadership system of global climate governance, that is, replace G2 with C5, and continue to make efforts to change the negative position of the United States on climate change.
【作者单位】： 北京大学国际关系学院;北京大学环境科学与工程学院;美国华盛顿大学;科技部21世纪议程管理中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部2017年应急管理项目“美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响及我国的应对策略”
【分类号】：D871.2;D996.9;P467
，
本文编号：2249512
[Abstract]:By using qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper analyzes the reasons why the United States announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, evaluates the impact of the withdrawal of the United States on the prospect of the Paris Agreement and puts forward China's countermeasures. The announcement of the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement is a major event in global climate governance that will have multiple implications for the implementation of the Paris Agreement, including serious harm to the universality of the Paris Agreement, Shake the foundations of the international climate governance system with the Paris Agreement at its core; will lead to a significant deterioration of the leadership deficit in the implementation of the Paris Agreement; may trigger adverse demonstration effects and reduce confidence in international climate cooperation; There will be an unnegligible squeeze on carbon emissions in other regions, which will push up the cost of reducing carbon emissions in other regions; a sharp reduction in international climate aid funding by the United States will weaken the ability of developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change; The delay in climate action by the United States could lead to missing the best window of time for global emissions reductions; a sharp reduction in funding for basic research on climate change in the United States will have adverse effects on future global climate science research. Then it affects the authority of the Paris Agreement implementation negotiation, and finally increases the difficulty of achieving the temperature control target, and even leads to the failure to achieve the target. In the overall context of global climate governance, the global climate governance framework will not collapse, but it will be shaken; the process of global climate governance will not be reversed, but it will lag. One of the many challenges facing China as the United States announces its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is the sharp rise in expectations that China will assume international pressure to lead global climate governance. For this reason, China should realize the upper limit goal of national independent contribution at home and abroad should actively rebuild the collective leadership system of global climate governance, that is, replace G2 with C5, and continue to make efforts to change the negative position of the United States on climate change.
【作者单位】： 北京大学国际关系学院;北京大学环境科学与工程学院;美国华盛顿大学;科技部21世纪议程管理中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部2017年应急管理项目“美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响及我国的应对策略”
【分类号】：D871.2;D996.9;P467
，
本文编号：2249512
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