石家庄工业结构优化阶段性特征及对经济的影响

发布时间：2018-06-04 01:48

本文选题：工业结构调整 + 区位商　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：早在2009年，石家庄市人民政府关于市级财政支持构建现代产业体系提出建议，因此，立足石家庄市的长远发展，立足石家庄市的实际情况，应该建立一套合理的现代产业体系。2014年3月5日国务院总理李克强关于京津冀问题在文件中曾提出，充分利用京津冀区域的有利优势，加强环渤海地区以及京津冀地区协调发展。实现京津冀协同发展是一个重大国家战略，石家庄又面临京津冀协同发展这样一个发展机遇，选准突破口，突出优势产业、突出产业集聚加速构建现代产业体系是当务之急。因此，研究石家庄工业结构调整特征、产业结构优化路径、产业结构调整对经济增长的影响等等都是非常重要的课题。本文首先综述了产业结构调整相关理论和国内外研究现状，在产业结构理论基础上，通过石家庄工业发展和结构调整发展历程的分析，对石家庄市的工业化历程提出了四个阶段：一是工业化起ki阶段；二是工业化基础阶段；三是工业化推进阶段；四是工业结构调整阶段。其次，为研究工业结构调整与经济增长之间的关系，通过研究工业行业划分标准，对行业进行分类调整，调整后为35个细分行业，克服了1997-2012年石家庄工业的行业分类不一致的障碍，确保了统计分析方法使用的有效性。再次，利用1997-2012年统计数据，运用GDP增速对工业增速的弹性系数、工业对GDP增长的贡献率以及向量自回归模型综合研究石家庄工业结构调整对经济产生的影响；运用区位商法，描述现阶段工业结构调整情况，综合考虑产业贡献率，产业能耗情况，产业发展类型综合评测产业结构调整中存在问题；通过测定工业调整和国内生产总值的联动关系，定量分析现阶段工业结构调整对经济的影响；采用主成分分析，，探究未来工业转型升级的现实路径。并研究了石家庄工业结构合理化和高度化与经济增长的相互关系。在上面统计分析的基础上，研究了石家庄工业结构调整升级的方向和主导产业选择，结合石家庄市“十二五”规划的总体发展战略，对石家庄工业结构调整优化升级的政策取向和建议提出了自己的观点。
[Abstract]:As early as 2009, the people's Government of Shijiazhuang put forward suggestions on municipal financial support for the construction of a modern industrial system. Therefore, based on the long-term development of Shijiazhuang and the actual situation of Shijiazhuang, A reasonable modern industrial system should be established. On March 5, 2014, Premier Li Keqiang mentioned in a document on the issue of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to make full use of the advantages of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Strengthen the coordinated development of the Bohai Rim and Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions. It is an important national strategy to realize the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Shijiazhuang is faced with such a development opportunity as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordination. It is urgent for Shijiazhuang to select the right breakthrough, highlight the superior industry and accelerate the construction of modern industrial system. Therefore, it is very important to study the characteristics of industrial structure adjustment in Shijiazhuang, the path of industrial structure optimization, the influence of industrial structure adjustment on economic growth and so on. This paper first summarizes the relevant theories of industrial structure adjustment and domestic and foreign research status, on the basis of industrial structure theory, through the analysis of Shijiazhuang industrial development and structural adjustment development process. This paper puts forward four stages of the industrialization of Shijiazhuang: one is the industrialization stage, the other is the industrialization foundation stage, the third is the industrialization promotion stage, and the fourth is the industrial structure adjustment stage. Secondly, in order to study the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and economic growth, through the study of industrial industry division standard, the industry is classified and adjusted. After adjustment, it is divided into 35 subdivision industries. The inconsistency of industrial classification in Shijiazhuang from 1997 to 2012 was overcome, and the validity of statistical analysis method was ensured. Thirdly, using the statistical data of 1997-2012, using the elasticity coefficient of GDP growth to industrial growth, the contribution rate of industry to GDP growth and the vector autoregressive model, the paper synthetically studies the influence of Shijiazhuang industrial structure adjustment on economy, and applies the location quotient method. Describing the current situation of industrial structure adjustment, synthetically considering the industrial contribution rate, industrial energy consumption and industrial development type, evaluating the problems existing in the industrial structure adjustment, measuring the linkage relationship between industrial adjustment and gross domestic product, Quantitative analysis of the impact of the industrial structure adjustment on the economy at this stage and the use of principal component analysis to explore the future industrial transformation and upgrading of the real path. The relationship between the rationalization and elevation of industrial structure and economic growth in Shijiazhuang is also studied. On the basis of the above statistical analysis, this paper studies the direction of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading and the choice of leading industries in Shijiazhuang, combined with the overall development strategy of the 12th Five-Year Plan of Shijiazhuang. The policy orientation and suggestion of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in Shijiazhuang are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F427

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