基于城市基础部门模型的成都市规模研究
发布时间：2018-09-08 07:45
【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国各类大中小城市都有了快速发展,城市化进程不断加快。城市作为各种经济社会要素聚集的中心,是城市经济社会发展赖以生存的空间载体。城市社会经济的发展,客观上需要一个与之相适应的合理的城市人口规模,这对于高速发展的现代化城市而言,是一个亟待解决的城市问题之一。自改革开放以来,我国的城市规模发展政策经历了不同的调整,在国家城市规模发展政策的宏观调控下,各地应因地制宜地制定适合本地城市发展的城市规模发展战略。城市基础部门模型是城市经济学的重要理论模型,它不仅可以解释城市经济的增长,而且可用来探讨城市化的机制,显化城市规模的发展规律,这可为各个城市因地制宜地制定符合自身的城市规模发展政策提供了理论依据和现实方法。本文在前人研究的基础之上,从城市人口规模与城市基础部门产业相互作用关系角度出发,结合四川省成都市十年间城镇人口和就业数据,利用基础部门模型解释了成都市基础部门产业发展对城市规模发展的作用机制,并结合灰色系统模型对成都2020年的城市规模发展进行了预测。第一章为绪论,说明了关于城市规模研究的选题背景和研究理论及现实意义,并对国外内关于城市规模与产业发展关系、城市规模预测、城市基础部门模型的研究成果和现状进行归纳总结,在前人研究的基础之上提出本文的研究思路框架与研究方法,及本文的研究的创新点与不足。第二章为城市规模研究的概念界定及理论分析。重点阐述城市规模研究的理论依据:从城市化、配第—克拉克理论,解释城市产业发展所能吸纳的劳动力数量影响着未来城市规模的大小,为后文探讨基础部门产业影响城市规模打下理论基础;从集聚经济和规模经济理论出发,解释城市规模的扩张或缩小会带来城市集聚效益和规模效益的变化,影响城市规模发展;从劳动地域分工理论、输出基础理论出发,解释各个城市具有比较优势,承担不同的劳动地域分工,形成不同的基础部门,对城市规模的大小发挥不同的作用。第三章在理论分析基础之上,对成都市城市规模现状从多个角度展开研究。成都作为西部地区的特大城市,流动人口数量多,城市化水平较高,同时,成都经济发展近年来成绩显著,工业、建筑业、房地产业、信息产业行业优势明显。城市基础部门模型表明,城市规模的发展与基础部门发展关系密切相关,研究发现成都城市基础部门主要集中在第二、三产业,成都与北京、广州发达城市相比,第三产业发展仍相对滞后,服务业水平不高,第三产从业人员比重较低,在吸纳劳动力就业方面仍有较大的发展空间。第四章是本文的重点章节,分四大部分研究:一、重点阐述了城市基础部门模型,对城市规模增长机制进行静态和动态的推导;二、运用区位商法区分成都城市基础、非基础部门;三、基于城市基础部门模型推导,测算出来基础部门各系数,用数据解释基础部门产业的发展于城市规模的发展的作用机制,研究表明,基础部门每增加一个从业人员,会带动配套部门平均增加0.18个从业人员,公共服务部门平均增加0.37个从业人员,由于就业增加而平均增加的抚养人口数为1.14人;四、利用灰色系统模型Verhulst预测2020年成都市基础部门从业人员规模将达到约400.17万人,基于基础部门产业的发展,配套部门从业人员将增加68.03万人,公共服务部门从业人员增加约141.06万人,总的就业人员将达到609.26万人,就业人员所抚养的人口将达到563.28万人,城市总人口规模将达到1172.54万人。第五章是成都城市规模发展趋势分析与对策。根据第四章,预测成都2020年城市规模将会达到约1172.54万人,与《成都市新型城镇化规划2015—2020年》相比,成都城市基础部门发展未来可吸纳的城市人口规模较小,如果要达到成都城市发展规划的目标,需要继续支持基础部门优势产业的发展,促进人口聚集与产业聚集融合发展,增强产业就业吸纳能力、城市经济人口承载能力和城市人文魅力。第六章是结论与展望,指出本文可进一步研究探讨的方向。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, all kinds of large, medium and small cities in China have developed rapidly, and the urbanization process has been accelerating. As the center of various economic and social factors, cities are the space carriers on which urban economic and social development depends. Since the reform and opening-up, China's urban scale development policy has undergone different adjustments. Under the macro-control of the national urban scale development policy, various localities should formulate the urban scale development war suitable for local urban development according to local conditions. The urban basic department model is an important theoretical model of urban economics. It can not only explain the growth of urban economy, but also explore the mechanism of urbanization and reveal the development law of urban scale. It can provide theoretical basis and practical method for each city to formulate its own urban scale development policy according to local conditions. On the basis of previous studies, this paper, from the perspective of the interaction between urban population size and urban basic sector industry, combined with the urban population and employment data of Chengdu in Sichuan Province in the past ten years, uses the basic sector model to explain the mechanism of the industrial development of basic sector in Chengdu on the development of urban scale, and combines the grey system. The system model predicts the development of urban scale in Chengdu in 2020. The first chapter is the introduction, which explains the background and theoretical and practical significance of the research on urban scale, and summarizes the research results and current situation of the relationship between urban scale and industrial development, urban scale prediction, and urban basic department model at home and abroad. The second chapter is the definition and theoretical analysis of urban scale research. The theoretical basis of urban scale research is elaborated emphatically: from the perspective of urbanization, Petty-Clark theory to explain the urban industrial development institute. The quantity of labor force that can be absorbed influences the future urban scale, which lays a theoretical foundation for the following discussion on the influence of basic sector industries on the urban scale. Based on the theory of regional division of labor and the basic theory of export, this paper explains that each city has comparative advantages, undertakes different division of labor, forms different basic departments and plays different roles in the size of the city. At the same time, the economic development of Chengdu has made remarkable achievements in recent years. The advantages of industry, construction, real estate and information industry are obvious. The basic department model of the city shows that the development of the city scale is closely related to the development of the basic department. Compared with the developed cities of Beijing and Guangzhou, the development of the tertiary industry in Chengdu is still lagging behind, the service industry level is not high, the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry is low, and there is still much room for development in absorbing labor force employment. Secondly, the location quotient method is used to distinguish the basic and non-basic sectors of Chengdu city. Thirdly, based on the derivation of the urban basic sector model, the coefficients of the basic sector are calculated, and the role of the development of basic sector industry in the development of urban scale is explained with data. Mechanisms, research shows that each additional employee in the basic sector will lead to an average increase of 0.18 employees in the supporting sector, 0.37 employees in the public service sector, and an average increase in the number of dependants due to the increase in employment of 1.14 people. Fourthly, the grey system model Verhulst is used to predict the number of employees in the basic sector of Chengdu by 2020. Based on the development of the basic sector industry, the number of employees in the supporting sector will increase by 6803,000, the number of employees in the public service sector will increase by 1406,000, the total number of employees will reach 6.0926,000, the number of people supported by the employees will reach 5.6328,000, and the total urban population will reach 1,725. The fifth chapter is the analysis and Countermeasure of the development trend of urban scale in Chengdu.According to the fourth chapter, it is predicted that the urban scale of Chengdu will reach about 11.7254 million by 2020.Compared with the new urbanization plan of Chengdu from 2015 to 2020, the urban basic departments of Chengdu will have a smaller population size to absorb in the future, if they want to reach the city of Chengdu. The goal of the development plan is to continue to support the development of superior industries in basic departments, promote the integration of population and industrial agglomeration, enhance the absorptive capacity of industrial employment, the carrying capacity of urban economic population and the city's human charm.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.27
本文编号：2229854
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, all kinds of large, medium and small cities in China have developed rapidly, and the urbanization process has been accelerating. As the center of various economic and social factors, cities are the space carriers on which urban economic and social development depends. Since the reform and opening-up, China's urban scale development policy has undergone different adjustments. Under the macro-control of the national urban scale development policy, various localities should formulate the urban scale development war suitable for local urban development according to local conditions. The urban basic department model is an important theoretical model of urban economics. It can not only explain the growth of urban economy, but also explore the mechanism of urbanization and reveal the development law of urban scale. It can provide theoretical basis and practical method for each city to formulate its own urban scale development policy according to local conditions. On the basis of previous studies, this paper, from the perspective of the interaction between urban population size and urban basic sector industry, combined with the urban population and employment data of Chengdu in Sichuan Province in the past ten years, uses the basic sector model to explain the mechanism of the industrial development of basic sector in Chengdu on the development of urban scale, and combines the grey system. The system model predicts the development of urban scale in Chengdu in 2020. The first chapter is the introduction, which explains the background and theoretical and practical significance of the research on urban scale, and summarizes the research results and current situation of the relationship between urban scale and industrial development, urban scale prediction, and urban basic department model at home and abroad. The second chapter is the definition and theoretical analysis of urban scale research. The theoretical basis of urban scale research is elaborated emphatically: from the perspective of urbanization, Petty-Clark theory to explain the urban industrial development institute. The quantity of labor force that can be absorbed influences the future urban scale, which lays a theoretical foundation for the following discussion on the influence of basic sector industries on the urban scale. Based on the theory of regional division of labor and the basic theory of export, this paper explains that each city has comparative advantages, undertakes different division of labor, forms different basic departments and plays different roles in the size of the city. At the same time, the economic development of Chengdu has made remarkable achievements in recent years. The advantages of industry, construction, real estate and information industry are obvious. The basic department model of the city shows that the development of the city scale is closely related to the development of the basic department. Compared with the developed cities of Beijing and Guangzhou, the development of the tertiary industry in Chengdu is still lagging behind, the service industry level is not high, the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry is low, and there is still much room for development in absorbing labor force employment. Secondly, the location quotient method is used to distinguish the basic and non-basic sectors of Chengdu city. Thirdly, based on the derivation of the urban basic sector model, the coefficients of the basic sector are calculated, and the role of the development of basic sector industry in the development of urban scale is explained with data. Mechanisms, research shows that each additional employee in the basic sector will lead to an average increase of 0.18 employees in the supporting sector, 0.37 employees in the public service sector, and an average increase in the number of dependants due to the increase in employment of 1.14 people. Fourthly, the grey system model Verhulst is used to predict the number of employees in the basic sector of Chengdu by 2020. Based on the development of the basic sector industry, the number of employees in the supporting sector will increase by 6803,000, the number of employees in the public service sector will increase by 1406,000, the total number of employees will reach 6.0926,000, the number of people supported by the employees will reach 5.6328,000, and the total urban population will reach 1,725. The fifth chapter is the analysis and Countermeasure of the development trend of urban scale in Chengdu.According to the fourth chapter, it is predicted that the urban scale of Chengdu will reach about 11.7254 million by 2020.Compared with the new urbanization plan of Chengdu from 2015 to 2020, the urban basic departments of Chengdu will have a smaller population size to absorb in the future, if they want to reach the city of Chengdu. The goal of the development plan is to continue to support the development of superior industries in basic departments, promote the integration of population and industrial agglomeration, enhance the absorptive capacity of industrial employment, the carrying capacity of urban economic population and the city's human charm.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.27
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 段宝玲;冯强;刘德军;卜玉山;;基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的城市人口规模预测——以大同市为例[J];山西农业大学学报(自然科学版);2016年01期
2 何建武;;城市规模与城市产业结构的关系研究[J];经济与管理研究;2015年08期
3 孙祥栋;郑艳婷;张亮亮;;基于集聚经济规律的城市规模问题研究[J];中国人口·资源与环境;2015年03期
4 柯善咨;赵曜;;产业结构、城市规模与中国城市生产率[J];经济研究;2014年04期
5 李嘉靖;刘玉亭;;基于城市吸引力的市域总人口预测方法的完善[J];现代城市研究;2013年05期
6 钟无涯;颜玮;;基于劳动生产率的深圳就业人口预测[J];哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版);2013年03期
7 朱江丽;;开放经济视角下产业集聚与城市规模增长——基于长三角城市的实证分析[J];南大商学评论;2013年01期
8 张晓放;黄亮;吕芳;;东北三省城市职能演变分析[J];经济研究导刊;2013年02期
9 王鹏;陆浩然;;珠三角地区城市职能分类与转变研究[J];市场经济与价格;2012年06期
10 柳德江;殷凤玲;唐红燕;;玉溪市未来人口预测三种模型的分析[J];中国人口.资源与环境;2011年S1期
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 王雅莉;城市化经济运行分析[D];东北财经大学;2003年
相关硕士学位论文 前2条
1 杜悦凡;小城镇总体规划中人口预测方法研究[D];合肥工业大学;2014年
2 王楠;区域视角下城市人口规模预测方法研究[D];西安建筑科技大学;2011年
，本文编号：2229854
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/falvlunwen/sflw/2229854.html
