基于法官集体经验的量刑预测研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 04:28

  本文关键词：基于法官集体经验的量刑预测研究　出处：《法学研究》2016年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 多情节组合 量刑确定性 量刑模型 量刑预测

【摘要】：各种法定量刑情节在具体个案中有各种可能的组合,但对于多情节案件如何量刑却无明确的法律规定,导致此类案件的量刑结果不确定。以十四万余交通肇事罪案件为样本,对其量刑进行确定性检验发现:通过限缩量刑情节的裁量幅度,可以将此类案件的量刑确定性由原来的30.5%提高到51.1%;在此基础上控制样本离散性程度,可以将量刑确定性由51.1%进一步提高到73.4%。据此建立的量刑模型可用于量刑预测,促进司法公正,提高审判管理水平。归纳法官的集体经验用以指导量刑实践,是提高量刑确定性的有效方法。
[Abstract]:There are various combinations of statutory sentencing circumstances in specific cases, but there are no specific legal provisions for sentencing in multi plot cases, which leads to uncertain sentencing results in such cases. With more than fourteen traffic accident crime cases as samples, the deterministic test of the sentencing discretion by that limit the extent of sentencing, sentencing uncertainty such cases can be increased from 30.5% to 51.1%; the control sample dispersion degree on the basis of this, the sentencing uncertainty further increased from 51.1% to 73.4%. The sentencing model based on this can be used in sentencing prediction, to promote judicial justice and to improve the level of trial management. It is an effective way to improve the determinacy of sentencing by inducing the collective experience of judges to guide the practice of sentencing.
【作者单位】： 北京大学法学院;
【分类号】：D924.1
【正文快照】： 一、量刑规则真空与量刑结果不确定 法的确定性、行为后果的可预期性,是法治社会的基本特征。然而,尽管刑法总则、分则对刑罚裁量都有规定,量刑过程中还是存在一个规则真空:实践中当一个案件有数个量刑情节时,数个情节便有多种可能的组合,而法律只能对单个情节应当从轻、减轻，

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