醉酒型危险驾驶罪量刑影响因素实证研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 07:10

本文关键词：醉酒型危险驾驶罪量刑影响因素实证研究　出处：《法学研究》2016年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通过对已有研究进行比较,指出醉酒型危险驾驶罪量刑问题实证研究的回归模型构建中存在的哑变量设置以及标准化系数计算等问题;总结出在利用回归模型作为量刑模型预测刑罚量时,必须有较高的决定系数,在利用回归模型分析量刑影响因素的相对重要性、计算基准刑时,则不需要有较高的决定系数。在计算基准刑时,拘役判决的基准事实不仅包括血液酒精含量等因素,还应当包括量刑影响因素的参照水平;罚金判决的基准事实则不必然包括血液酒精含量,但可能包括行为人的经济状况。通过对全国2912份醉酒型危险驾驶罪判决书的研究,分析出影响拘役天数、罚金数额、缓刑情况的显著因素,并排列出相对重要性顺序;总结出拘役判决的基准事实为血液酒精含量,并据此计算出基准刑,即基准事实所对应的拘役天数回归模型的预测值;分析出罚金判决的基准事实包括血液酒精含量和车型,并据此计算出基准刑;指出缓刑判决的规范化标准同时包括血液酒精含量和认罪态度,并据此计算出参照标准。
[Abstract]:Based on the existing research, points out the existing in the construction of regression model empirical research on crime of sentencing drunken driving the dummy variable settings and standardized coefficient calculation etc.; summed up in the regression model as prediction model of sentencing punishment amount, must have a high coefficient of determination, using regression model to analyze the influence of relative sentencing the importance of factors, calculated on the basis of punishment, you do not need to have a higher coefficient of determination. When calculating the benchmark penalty, the baseline facts of the prison sentence include not only factors such as blood and alcohol content, but also the reference level of the factors affecting sentencing. The benchmark fact of the fine judgment does not necessarily include blood alcohol content, but it may include the economic condition of the actor. Through the research on the national 2912 drunken driving judgment, analysis of factors affecting the amount of fines, detention time, probation conditions, and arrange the relative order of importance; summed up the fact that the base detention to the judgment of blood alcohol content, and calculated the benchmark penalty, predicted that the corresponding benchmark facts of criminal detention time value of regression model; analysis of the fact that the base penalty decision including blood alcohol content and models, and calculated the reference standard of punishment; that sentence at the same time including blood alcohol content and confessed attitude, and calculated according to the standard.
【作者单位】：湖南大学法学院;
【基金】：“法治湖南建设与区域社会治理协同创新中心”平台建设、湖南省社科基金项目“抽象危险犯的立案标准研究”(14YBA106) 2014年部属高校国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目“醉酒驾驶的定罪与量刑实证研究”(201410532022)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D924.1
【正文快照】： 自刑法修正案(八)增设危险驾驶罪以来,关于醉酒型危险驾驶罪的争论从未中断。其中关于醉酒型危险驾驶罪量刑问题的讨论,[1]主要集中在量刑影响因素的分析、量刑模型的构建、基准刑的确定、罪刑均衡的实现等方面。多数文章论及了单个量刑因素的影响,并由此分析出醉酒型危险驾

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