20世纪90年代以来不同时段经济增长与土地违法关系再审视——基于省级面板数据的格兰杰因果检验

发布时间：2019-02-16 11:00

【摘要】：基于中国大陆省级面板数据,运用面板数据Granger因果检验方法,对20世纪90年代以来不同时段全国及东、中、西部、经济增长和土地违法间的关系进行比较分析。研究显示:在全国层面,1990-1996年,经济增长与土地违法间无显著因果关系;1999-2006年,滞后1期经济增长率和土地违法表现为双向因果关系,而滞后2期经济增长率是土地违法的单向格兰杰原因;2006-2013年,滞后1期经济增长是土地违法的单向格兰杰原因,而滞后2期土地违法是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。不同制度演进时期,因经济发展水平及土地违法治理政策偏好的差异,经济增长和土地违法间的因果关系存在时段及区域差异:1990-1996年东部经济增长率是土地违法的格兰杰原因,而中部经济增长与土地违法互为因果,西部则无显著因果关系;1999-2006年东部土地违法是经济增长的格兰杰原因,而中部经济增速的变化率是土地违法的格兰杰原因,西部经济增长率与土地违法呈双向因果关系;2006-2013年仅中部土地违法是经济增长率的格兰杰原因。研究表明,不同经济发展阶段与目标可能导致不同程度的潜在土地违法行为,通过提高土地利用效率、完善法律制度及监管机制有助于缓解或遏制土地违法行为;不同地区应在把握经济增长与土地违法因果关系的基础上,根据经济发展需要制定差别化土地违法治理对策。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data in mainland China and using the method of panel data Granger causality test, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the relationship between economic growth and land violation in different periods of China since 1990s. At the national level, there was no significant causal relationship between economic growth and land violations from 1990 to 1996. From 1999 to 2006, the economic growth rate and land illegality showed a two-way causal relationship, while the lag of economic growth rate in two periods was the one-way Granger cause of land violation. From 2006 to 2013, lagged economic growth was the one-way Granger cause of land violation, while the lag of 2 periods was the one-way Granger cause of economic growth. Because of the difference of economic development level and the preference of land illegal control policy in different institutional evolution period, There are time periods and regional differences between economic growth and land violation: the eastern economic growth rate is the Granger cause of land violation from 1990 to 1996, while the central economic growth and land violation are causality, but there is no significant causal relationship in the west; From 1999 to 2006, the eastern land violation is the Granger cause of economic growth, while the change rate of the central economic growth rate is the Granger reason. Land lawlessness in the central part of the country was the Granger cause of economic growth in 2006-2013. The study shows that different stages and objectives of economic development may lead to different degrees of potential land illegal behavior, through improving the efficiency of land use, improving the legal system and supervision mechanism can help to alleviate or curb the illegal behavior of land; On the basis of grasping the relationship between economic growth and land illegal cause and effect, different regions should formulate countermeasures to deal with different land violations according to the needs of economic development.
【作者单位】：江苏师范大学测绘学院;南京财经大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“城镇用地合理扩张:动力机制及情景模拟”(41101546) 江苏省社会科学基金项目“农村集体建设用地流转收益分配机制研究——以江苏省苏南地区为例”(14GLC005) 江苏师范大学研究生创新项目“农村集体建设用地流转主体意愿及收益分享机制研究——以苏州市为例”(2015YYB037) 江苏省自然科学基金“土地城镇化与人口城镇化协调研究:基于财政分权视角”(BK20131008)
【分类号】：D922.3;F129

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