A海水淡化项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 15:31

本文选题：海水淡化项目　切入点：风险管理　出处：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：面临世界性的淡水紧缺问题,多数沿海国家想到了向大海要淡水的解决办法。因此,海水淡化技术的研发和海水淡化项目的建设受到了越来越多国家的重视。我国城市、工业、农业的缺水态势也十分明显,相应地,海水淡化项目的建设也在不断增加。但是,由于海水淡化项目本身存在发展慢、投资大、成本高等先天劣势,以及我国海水淡化项目发展过程中存在着诸如对海水淡化的重要性认识不足、具有自主知识产权的关键技术较少、设备制造及配套能力较弱、缺乏统筹规划和政策法规的引导、水资源开发利用市场机制不完善等问题,致使我国海水淡化项目在运营过程中出现了半停产和全部停产的状况。文章从项目风险管理的角度,首先梳理了国内外关于项目风险管理和海水淡化项目的相关文献资料,理清了海水淡化项目风险管理的现状和发展动态；其次,介绍了文章的研究理论依据,即风险管理理论,并对A海水淡化项目的基本概况进行了介绍以及对项目的可行性和市场需求进行了分析。海水淡化项目的风险有其独有的特点,文章从A海水淡化项目的具体案例对风险予以了识别,识别的结果是,海水淡化项目风险包括了工程风险、工艺技术风险、财务风险和环境风险。在风险识别的基础上,文章采用了SWOT分析法、敏感性分析法和AHP层次分析法对项目风险进行了评估。评估的结果是,不同的风险因素的风险程度是不同的,项目对产品水的价格经济敏感性较高,项目风险的整体水平是工艺技术风险的比重最大,其次是财务风险,再次是工程风险,最后是环境风险。最后,文章在风险评估的基础上,指出了A海水淡化项目的风险控制的重点和相应的应对措施。文章利用项目风险管理的理论,结合A海水淡化项目的实例,对工程项目风险进行了有效的识别、分析评价,提出了应对措施,从而降低项目的风险水平,为A海水淡化项目顺利进行提供了依据,并为我国此类海水淡化项目的建设和运营提供了借鉴。
[Abstract]:Faced with the worldwide shortage of fresh water, most coastal countries have come up with solutions to the need for fresh water from the sea. As a result, the research and development of desalination technology and the construction of desalination projects have attracted more and more attention from more and more countries. The situation of water shortage in agriculture is also very obvious. Correspondingly, the construction of desalination projects is also increasing. However, due to the inherent disadvantages of the desalination projects themselves, such as slow development, large investment and high cost, In the process of development of seawater desalination project in China, such as insufficient understanding of the importance of seawater desalination, fewer key technologies with independent intellectual property rights, weak equipment manufacturing and supporting capacity, lack of overall planning and guidance of policies and regulations. The market mechanism of water resources development and utilization is not perfect, which leads to the semi-shutdown and total shutdown of seawater desalination projects in China. First of all, combing the domestic and foreign related documents on project risk management and seawater desalination project, the current situation and development trend of risk management of seawater desalination project are clarified. Secondly, the paper introduces the theoretical basis of the research, namely risk management theory. The basic situation of A seawater desalination project is introduced and the feasibility and market demand of the project are analyzed. The risk of seawater desalination project has its unique characteristics. The paper identifies the risk from the specific case of A seawater desalination project. The result is that the risk of seawater desalination project includes engineering risk, technological risk, financial risk and environmental risk. On the basis of risk identification, the risk of seawater desalination project includes engineering risk, technological risk, financial risk and environmental risk. In this paper, SWOT analysis, sensitivity analysis and AHP analytic hierarchy process are used to evaluate the project risk. The results show that the risk degree of different risk factors is different, and the price and economic sensitivity of the project to product water is high. The overall level of project risk is the largest proportion of technological risk, followed by financial risk, engineering risk, and finally environmental risk. This paper points out the key points of risk control of A seawater desalination project and the corresponding countermeasures. By using the theory of project risk management and combining with the example of A seawater desalination project, the risk of engineering project is effectively identified and analyzed and evaluated. The countermeasures are put forward in order to reduce the risk level of the project, provide the basis for the A seawater desalination project to carry on smoothly, and provide reference for the construction and operation of this kind of seawater desalination project in our country.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：P747

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