技术创新对我国转变外贸发展方式的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 01:11

本文选题：技术创新　切入点：外贸发展方式　出处：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国对外贸易规模以超过20%的年均增长速度增长，截至2011年，我国实现外贸进出口总值36420.6亿美元，其中出口18986亿美元，排名世界第一，进口17434.6亿美元，，居世界第二。但是，我国快速增长的贸易规模却是建立在资源消耗和劳动力优势基础之上，50%以上的贸易额以加工贸易的方式完成，出口产品缺乏自主知识产权和自主品牌；另外，我国出口产品中主要为低附加值的劳动和资源密集型产品，高科技产品出口所占比重较低。因此，我国现有的外贸发展方式水平不高、竞争力不强，不利于外贸的可持续发展，亟需转变。而外贸发展方式的转变关键在于技术创新，尤其是自主创新能力的提升。本文主要分析技术创新对我国外贸发展方式转变的影响，首先分析技术创新影响外贸发展方式转变的内在机理，分别从技术创新通过推动产业结构升级、贸易结构优化和外贸可持续的发展来说明外贸发展方式的转变；其次，通过构建外贸发展方式综合评价指标体系，运用主成分分析法测算出历年我国外贸发展方式转变水平指数，用以反映我国外贸发展方式的转变水平；再次，建立技术创新对外贸发展方式转变水平指数的回归模型，并运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解等方法，分析技术创新对外贸发展方式转变的影响。本文的实证分析结果表明：1995-2010年，外贸发展方式转变水平指标处于稳定上升状态，表明我国外贸发展方式转变已取得较好成效；表示技术创新的三个变量：RD投入强度、技术创新产出率和人力资本强度，对外贸发展方式转变都具有显著的正向影响，其中RD投入强度的影响程度要显著大于其余两变量对外贸发展方式转变的影响；RD投入强度、技术创新产出率以及人力资本强度都是引起外贸发展方式转变的格兰杰原因；当VAR模型中一个变量受到外部冲击时，外贸发展方式转变对来自RD投入强度的脉冲响应最为明显，而且反应多为正值，并且影响也具有较长的持续性，而对来自其它因素的脉冲响应函数表现较为复杂，呈现周期波动，正负交替。在理论与实证的研究基础上，本文提出我国应该建立以技术创新为核心的外贸发展方式，并提出相关政策建议，主要有：加大研发投入，提高技术创新的引进消化吸收和再创新能力，建立贸易促进技术创新体系等。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening - up , China ' s foreign trade has grown at an annual average rate of more than 20 % . As of 2011 , China ' s foreign trade import and export value amounted to 36420 billion US dollars , of which US $ 18986 billion , ranking the world ' s first , imported $ 17434 . 600 million , the world ' s second . However , China ' s fast - growing trade scale was based on resource consumption and labor strength , and more than 50 % of the trade volume was completed in the way of processing trade , and the export product lacked independent intellectual property rights and self - owned brands ;
In addition , China ' s export products mainly include low added value labor and resource - intensive products , and the proportion of export of high - tech products is low . Therefore , China ' s current mode of foreign trade development is not high , its competitiveness is not strong , it is unfavorable to the sustainable development of foreign trade . The key to the transformation of foreign trade development mode lies in the promotion of technological innovation , especially the independent innovation ability .

This paper mainly analyzes the influence of technological innovation on China ' s foreign trade development mode , first analyzes the internal mechanism of technological innovation ' s transformation from foreign trade development mode , and explains the transformation of foreign trade development mode from technological innovation through promoting industrial structure upgrading , trade structure optimization and foreign trade sustainable development .
Secondly , by constructing comprehensive evaluation index system of foreign trade development mode , using principal component analysis method to calculate the transformation level index of foreign trade development mode of China in calendar year , which is used to reflect the transformation level of foreign trade development mode in China ;
Thirdly , establish the regression model of the transformation level index of the technological innovation to the foreign trade development mode , and analyze the influence of technological innovation on the transformation of foreign trade development mode by means of co - integration test , Grant causality test , impulse response function and variance decomposition .

The empirical analysis of this paper shows that , in 1995 - 2010 , the transition level index of foreign trade development mode is in a stable rising state , which indicates that China ' s foreign trade development mode has achieved good results ;
The three variables that represent technological innovation : RD input intensity , technological innovation yield and human capital intensity , have significant positive impact on the transformation of foreign trade development mode , in which the influence degree of RD input intensity is significantly greater than that of the other two variables for foreign trade development mode transition ;
RD investment intensity , the yield of technological innovation and the strength of human capital are the reasons for the change of foreign trade development mode ;
When a variable in the VAR model is impacted by external shocks , the transformation of the foreign trade development mode is most obvious to the impulse response from RD input intensity , and the response is positive , and the influence also has long persistence , and the impulse response function from other factors is more complex , exhibits periodic fluctuation and positive and negative alternation .

On the basis of the research of theory and demonstration , this paper puts forward that China should establish the mode of foreign trade development with technological innovation as its core , and put forward relevant policy suggestions , which mainly include : increasing R & D investment , improving technological innovation , introducing digestion and absorbing and re - innovation ability , establishing trade promotion technology innovation system , etc .

【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752

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