中新FTA的实施现状与贸易效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 08:56

  本文选题：中新FTA + 实施现状　； 参考：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在全球多边贸易谈判进程受阻的背景下,为减少与他国进行经济贸易活动时的壁垒增强本国产业的竞争力,组建或加入自由贸易区(FTA)成为许多国家心仪的选择。身处区域经济一体化的浪潮中,中国也高度重视自由贸易区的发展战略,迄今为止已经签订了 13个自由贸易协定,其中与新西兰签订的FTA是中国第一个涵盖货物贸易、服务贸易、投资及知识产权等其他多个领域的自由贸易协定,协定于2008年10月1日开始实施。中新FTA规定在2016年前新西兰取消全部对中国进口产品的关税,中方则在2019年前取消97.2%自新进口产品关税,由此可见中新FTA的覆盖率十分高,但利用原产地证书金额计算出的中国企业对中新FTA的利用率却只有2%。在双方贸易与投资现状中我们也看到中新FTA的签订对中国出口到新西兰的促进作用不如对进口自新西兰的促进作用明显,对双向FDI的流量促进作用则十分明显,因此采取合理科学的实证方法研究FTA的贸易效应,亦即中新FTA的签订对两国双边贸易总额的影响,是诸多学者也是本文研究的重点。本文利用国外政策研究领域逐渐开始使用的合成控制法来研究中新FTA的签订对双边贸易的影响,具体来说就是将中新FTA的签订视为一项自然实验,将新西兰作为处理组,同时利用若干个其他国家适当的线性组合来构造一个"合成控制国家"作为对照组,利用数据驱动的方法估算对照组的权重,然后将"真实新西兰"与"合成新西兰"进行对比分析。本文在考虑地区集中度与经济差异度的情况下选取29个国家,这29个国家在2003至2013年间都没有与中国签订过FTA,被解释变量为中国与包括新西兰在内的30个国家的双边贸易总额,选取的影响双边贸易总额的预测变量为这30个国家的GDP总额、人均收入及与中国之间的地理距离。利用Stata模拟结果显示,爱尔兰、乌拉圭、黎巴嫩在合成新西兰的权重中为正,这三个国家拟合的合成新西兰在2008年政策实施之前各项变量与真实的新西兰都较为接近,双边贸易总额的增长路径也十分贴近,说明在研究中国与新西兰的政策效应时可以采取合成控制法,而在比较2009至2013年间合成新西兰与真实新西兰同中国双边贸易总额的差距时我们看到,合成新西兰与中国的双边贸易总额均值仅为真实新西兰贸易总额均值的50%左右,同时将合成新西兰与真实新西兰分别作为对照组和处理组利用DID模型进行回归分析,得出与合成控制法相似的结论。可以说由于中国与新西兰FTA的签订两国间的贸易便利大大增加,贸易壁垒被极大的减少,自由贸易协定的政策对两国贸易额的增长作用十分显著。针对中新FTA对两国贸易的显著影响以及中国企业对FTA利用率低下的现状,本文认为我国政府应当继续升级深化现有的自由贸易协定,各级政府部门与商会合作加强FTA宣传,同时注意加强网络平台的利用,让FTA政策真正惠国惠民。
[Abstract]:In the backdrop of the global multilateral trade negotiation process, in order to reduce the barriers to trade with other countries to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic industry, the formation or accession to the free trade area (FTA) has become a choice for many countries. In the wave of regional economic integration, China attaches great importance to the development strategy of the free trade zone. So far, 13 free trade agreements have been signed, of which FTA, signed with New Zealand, is China's first free trade agreement in many other fields, including goods trade, service trade, investment and intellectual property rights. The agreement was implemented in October 1, 2008. The China new FTA stipulated that New Zealand abolished all imports to China before 2016. The product tariff, China cancelled 97.2% new imported products by 2019, it can be seen that the coverage rate of the new FTA is very high, but the use of the certificate of origin calculated by Chinese enterprises to China and new FTA is only 2%. in the current situation of bilateral trade and investment, we also see the signing of China's new FTA to the new West. The promotion effect of orchid is not as obvious as the promotion effect on import from New Zealand, and it is very obvious to the flow of two-way FDI. Therefore, it is also the focus of this article to take a reasonable and scientific empirical method to study the trade effect of FTA, that is, the effect of the signing of the new FTA on bilateral trade of the two countries. The synthetic control method, which is gradually used in the field of foreign policy research, is used to study the impact of the signing of the new FTA on bilateral trade. Specifically, the signing of China and the new FTA is considered as a natural experiment. New Zealand is taken as a processing group and a "synthetic control country" is constructed by using the appropriate linear combination of several other countries as a pair. A data driven method was used to estimate the weight of the control group, and then the "real New Zealand" was compared with "synthetic New Zealand". In this paper, 29 countries were selected in the case of regional concentration and economic difference, and the 29 countries had not signed FTA with China between 2003 and 2013, and the variables were interpreted as China and the package. The total amount of bilateral trade in 30 countries, including New Zealand, is selected to predict the total GDP of the 30 countries, per capita income and the geographical distance between China. The results of Stata simulation show that Ireland, Uruguay, and Lebanon are in the right of the weight of the New Zealand, and the three countries fit in. Before the implementation of New Zealand in 2008, the various variables are close to the real New Zealand, and the growth path of bilateral trade is also close. It shows that the synthetic control method can be adopted when studying the policy effect of China and New Zealand, and New Zealand and real Zealand and China are made bilateral in the period from 2009 to 2013. We see that the total trade volume gap is only about 50% of the total value of real Zealand Trade in the total value of New Zealand and China. At the same time, the synthetic New Zealand and real New Zealand are used as control group and processing group, and the DID model is used for regression analysis, which can be said to be similar to the synthetic control method. Due to the great increase in trade facilitation between China and New Zealand FTA, trade barriers have been greatly reduced, and the policy of free trade agreements has a significant effect on the growth of the trade volume between the two countries. In view of the significant impact of the new FTA on the trade between the two countries and the current situation of the low utilization rate of FTA for Chinese enterprises, this article holds that our government should As we continue to upgrade the existing free trade agreements, government departments at all levels cooperate with the chamber of Commerce to strengthen the FTA propaganda, and pay attention to strengthening the use of the network platform so that the FTA policy is truly benefiting the nation.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F742
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本文编号：2013453