产业安全视角下我国橡胶制品贸易摩擦效应及预警机制研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 17:50

本文选题：橡胶制品 + 产业安全　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着世界经济和科学技术的不断发展，橡胶及其制品已越来越成为人们无法离开的重要物资，我国橡胶及其制品的出口额也呈现递增的态势；但是，对我国橡胶制品出口设置的反倾销、知识产权及技术贸易等新型壁垒也随之水涨船高，致使贸易摩擦案件增多，并且涉及的范围越来越广。本文专门对我国橡胶制品出口所遭遇的贸易摩擦进行研究，通过分析其作用机制和对宏观经济以及国内产业安全产生的负面效应，提出建立预警机制，并提供相应的对策建议。这对于减少橡胶制品出口贸易摩擦具有一定的理论和现实意义。本文在贸易摩擦、产业安全理论以及预警理论基础上，探究了橡胶制品出口遭遇贸易摩擦对国内产业安全的影响，运用了计量模型分析中美橡胶制品贸易摩擦对我国宏观经济的效应。结果显示，物质资本和人力资本都对我国国内生产总值具有推动作用，前者每增加一个单位的投入，国内生产总值会增加0.08个百分点，后者每增加一单位投入，国内生产总值会提高0.54个百分点；而贸易摩擦和国内生产总值之间存在着明显的负相关关系：美国对华橡胶制品出口贸易摩擦每增加一个单位，我国的国内生产总值就会减少0.01个百分点，虽然这个数值并不太大，但由于我国经济基数较大，美国对华橡胶制品贸易摩擦加剧会使我国经济遭受到一定的损失。然后提出建立应对我国橡胶制品出口摩擦的预警机制，根据倾销因素、非倾销因素和对进口国构成产业损害三个方面确定预警指标体系，然后利用采用问卷调查结果和层次分析法确定各个指标的权重大小。从得到的指标权重来看，我国橡胶制品的出口量、出口价格以及国内产量、销售量和销售价格变化率都对我国橡胶制品出口受阻影响较大，权重都大于0.1，其中出口量及变化率影响最大，达到了0.1811；另外，市场集中度、出口品在进口国所占的市场份额及增长率和进口国橡胶制品行业的失业率这三个指标所占权重也较高，都在0.06以上，，尤其是出口市场集中度，达到了0.0996。本文最后提出了应对贸易摩擦的对策建议：政府应当净化橡胶制品出口市场，并积极利用WTO贸易争端解决机制；行业协会要协调好政府和企业之间、企业和企业之间的关系，并提供信息咨询；企业应实现多元化生产、开发新市场并提高生产技术水平。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of world economy and science and technology, rubber and its products have become more and more important materials that people can't leave. The export value of rubber and its products in China is also increasing. Anti-dumping, intellectual property rights and technology trade and other new barriers to the export of China's rubber products are also rising, resulting in more and more cases of trade friction, and the scope involved is more and more extensive. This paper studies the trade frictions encountered in the export of rubber products in China. By analyzing the mechanism of its action and the negative effects on the macro-economy and the domestic industrial security, the paper puts forward the establishment of an early warning mechanism and provides corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. This for reducing rubber products export trade friction has a certain theoretical and practical significance. On the basis of trade friction, industrial safety theory and early warning theory, this paper probes into the impact of trade friction on domestic industrial safety caused by the export of rubber products. The econometric model is used to analyze the effect of Sino-American rubber products trade friction on China's macro economy. The results show that both physical capital and human capital have a catalytic effect on China's GDP. For each additional unit of input from the former, the GDP will increase by 0.08 percentage points, while the latter will increase by one unit per unit. The gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 0.54 percentage points; and there is a significant negative correlation between trade friction and GDP: every unit of trade friction in US rubber products exports to China is increased by one unit. China's GDP will be reduced by 0.01 percentage points, although this value is not too large, but because of the large economic base of our country, the intensified trade friction between the United States and China will cause certain losses to our economy. Then it puts forward the establishment of an early warning mechanism to deal with the export friction of rubber products in China. According to the three aspects of dumping factors, non-dumping factors and industrial injury to the importing countries, the early warning index system is determined. Then the weight of each index is determined by questionnaire survey and analytic hierarchy process. Judging from the index weights obtained, the export volume, export price, domestic output, sales volume and sales price change rate of China's rubber products have a great impact on the hindrance of our country's rubber products exports. The weights are all greater than 0.1, of which the export volume and the rate of change have the greatest influence, reaching 0.1811; in addition, the market concentration, The market share and growth rate of exports in importing countries and the unemployment rate of rubber products industry in importing countries were also higher, all above 0.06, especially the concentration of export markets, which reached 0.0996. Finally, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for dealing with trade frictions: the government should purify the export market of rubber products and make active use of WTO trade dispute settlement mechanism, trade associations should coordinate the relationship between government and enterprises, and between enterprises and enterprises. The enterprise should realize diversified production, develop new market and improve production technology level.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.02;F426.72

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