松耦合模型驱动的流域水资源管理决策支持系统研究及应用

发布时间：2018-06-20 17:25

本文选题：松耦合模型驱动 + 流域水资源管理　；参考：《华中科技大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：流域水资源具有发电、供水、航运、灌溉、养殖等多种适用价值和功能，如何合理开发、利用、节约和保护水资源并防治水害是一个事关科学发展的全局性根本性问题，同时也是一个关系国计民生的战略问题。我国水资源相当贫乏，水问题异常突出，且随着人类活动对水资源系统扰动程度的加深以及社会发展进程的高速推进，水资源的供需矛盾将更加严重，另一方面，近些年极端气候事件频发态势进一步增加了流域水资源管理的复杂性与不确定性。如何在流域范围内以最少的水资源、资金和人力的投入获得最大的社会效益、经济效益和环境效益是当前流域水资源管理的首要目标。流域水资源系统是一个受诸多方面因素影响的复杂系统，且流域水资源管理决策过程涉及社会、经济、水文、水动、水工和生态等多个领域，是一个典型半结构化的多层次、多主体、多目标决策问题，以信息管理系统为代表的传统模式已无法适应现代流域水资源管理的需求。基于预报、分析、局部搜索、多目标多属性决策、最优化、模拟、评估、知识、方法、数字化技术等多学科辅助决策运算单元（本文范畴内统称为“模型”，Model）的决策支持系统将辅助流域水资源管理部门更好地开展水资源规划管理工作，其中保证面向决策需求的动态适应性与异质包容性是决定此类决策支持系统性能的关键。本文首次提出了一种以模型为中心，以决策行为优化环与决策技术优化环双层松耦合迭代优化结构为主要特点的决策支持系统建模与设计方法，定义它为松耦合模型驱动决策支持系统（Loose-couplingModel-driven Decision Support System，简称LCMD-DSS），并详细阐述了其决策机理、体系架构以及相关关键技术。近四年来，这一系统方法被成功应用到包括国家973计划项目应用示范在内的水资源管理实际工程应用中，应用效果表明LCMD-DSS具有良好的异质包容性、动态适应性与普适性推广前景。另一方面，随着相关知识产权保护规范与模型应用协议体系的完善，LCMD-DSS将极大地促进科研院所先进的流域水资源管理领域理论算法与实际工程实践相结合的学-研-产新模式的高速发展，为科学地开展流域水资源管理工作，实现“水资源可持续利用”国家战略提供理论基础与技术支撑。本文的主要研究成果和创新点包括：（1）针对流域水资源管理决策过程多层次、多主体、多目标且半结构化的特点，设计了基于双层迭代优化结构的持续集成松耦合系统体系，明确了系统框架下各相关角色的作用与分工，探讨了这一系统方法在流域水资源管理领域的决策机理，提出了松耦合模型驱动的流域水资源管理决策支持系统方法；（2）针对LCMD-DSS系统集成所面对的海量多源异构数据集成、网络分布式开放模型集成与基于GIS动态生成交互平台搭建等难题，综合运用地球科学、信息科学、计算机科学、空间科学、通信科学、管理科学、经济人文科学等多学科理论和技术成果，结合数字工程方法克服传统信息系统的物理边缘、技术边缘、功能边缘和逻辑思维边缘，建立了流域水资源管理统一数据共享平台，研发了网络分布式模型驱动的水资源管理智能化开放式模型库，，设计并实现了基于WPF与GIS的动态生成交互平台，为LCMD-DSS双层迭代优化机制提供了核心技术支撑；（3）针对流域水资源管理情景推演需求，综合考虑不规则边界和复杂地形的浅水流动数值计算问题，基于不规则三角形网格单元求解二维浅水方程的高精度Godunov型有限体积模型；研发了一系列用于数据分析与可视化转换的普适性GP服务，以模型的形式集成到系统开放式模型库，实现了流域水资源管理情景推演的数值仿真及可视化模拟；（4）以国家治水方针、水利部可持续利用治水新思路为指导，以辅助水行政主管部门自上而下调度协调流域水资源为目的，以研究并实现具有普适性意义的流域水资源管理决策支持系统为切入点，以持续优化LCMD方法的系统理论框架（决策行为优化环）与技术储备库（决策技术优化环）为技术路线，开展了LCMD-DSS在流域水资源管理领域的示范推广工作。
[Abstract]:Water resources in the basin have many applicable values and functions, such as power generation, water supply, shipping, irrigation, and aquaculture. How to rationally develop, utilize, save and protect water resources and prevent water damage is a global and fundamental problem related to scientific development. It is also a strategic problem for the people in relation to the people of China. The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be more serious with the deepening of the disturbance degree of human activities to water resources system and the rapid advancement of social development process. On the other hand, the frequent situation of extreme weather events in recent years has further increased the complexity and uncertainty of water resource management in the basin. Small water resources, capital and manpower input are the most important social benefits. Economic and environmental benefits are the primary objectives of water resource management in the basin. The basin water resource system is a complex system affected by many factors, and the decision-making process of water resources management involves social, economic, hydrological, hydraulic, hydraulic and ecological management. It is a typical semi structured multi-layer, multi-agent and multi-objective decision-making problem. The traditional mode represented by information management system can not adapt to the needs of modern water resource management. Based on prediction, analysis, local search, multi-objective and multi attribute decision, optimization, simulation, evaluation, knowledge, method, digital technology and so on The decision support system of the multi-disciplinary aided decision making operation unit (called "model" in the category, Model) will help the water resources management department to better carry out the water resource planning and management. The key to determine the performance of this kind of decision support system is to ensure the dynamic adaptability and heterogeneity of the decision-making requirements. The modeling and design method of a decision support system based on the model as the center, the optimization ring of decision behavior and the decision technology optimization of the double layer loosely coupled iterative optimization structure is proposed for the first time. It is defined as the loosely coupled model driven decision support system (Loose-couplingModel-driven Decision Support System, abbreviated as LCMD-DSS). The decision-making mechanism, architecture and related key technologies are described in detail. In the last four years, this system method has been successfully applied to the practical engineering application of water resources management including the national 973 Plan project application demonstration. The application results show that LCMD-DSS has good quality of heterogeneity, dynamic adaptability and popularization before popularization. On the other hand, with the improvement of the related intellectual property rights protection standards and the model application protocol system, LCMD-DSS will greatly promote the rapid development of the new model of the theoretical algorithm of water resources management and the practical engineering practice in the field of water resources management of the scientific research institute, and to carry out the management of water resources in the river basin scientifically. The main research achievements and innovations of the national strategy of "sustainable utilization of water resources" include:
(1) aiming at the multi-layer, multi-objective and semi structured characteristics of the decision process of water resource management in the basin, a continuous integrated loosely coupled system based on the double layer iterative optimization structure is designed. The role and division of the relevant roles under the system framework are clarified, and the decision-making machine of this system method in the field of water resource management in the basin is discussed. This paper proposes a loosely coupled model driven decision support system for watershed water resources management.
(2) in view of the massive heterogeneous data integration of LCMD-DSS system integration, network distributed open model integration and the construction of interactive platform based on GIS dynamic generation, the multi-disciplinary theory and technology of Geoscience, information science, computer science, space science, communication science, management science, economic and human science and so on are integrated. According to the digital engineering method, the physical edge of the traditional information system, the edge of the technology, the edge of the function and the edge of logical thinking are overcome, and a unified data sharing platform for water resource management in the basin is set up. The intelligent and open model library of water resource management driven by the network distributed model is developed, and the dynamic generation based on WPF and GIS is designed and realized. The transaction platform provides the core technical support for the LCMD-DSS bilayer iterative optimization mechanism.
(3) aiming at the requirement of watershed water resource management scenarios and considering the numerical calculation of shallow water flow in irregular boundary and complex terrain, the high precision Godunov model of two-dimensional shallow water equation is solved based on irregular triangular mesh element, and a series of universal GP suits for data analysis and visualization are developed. The model is integrated into the open model library of the system, and the numerical simulation and visual simulation of river basin water resources management scenario deduction are realized.
(4) taking the national water management policy and the new idea of water management for the Ministry of water resources for the sustainable use of water resources for the purpose of coordinating the water resources of the river basin from top to bottom by the Ministry of water administration, in order to study and realize the decision support system for water resources management of the river basin, which has the universal significance as the breakthrough point, the systematic theoretical framework of the continuous optimization of the LCMD method is made. The strategic behavior optimization ring and the technology storage base (decision making technology optimization loop) are the technical routes, and the demonstration and extension work of LCMD-DSS in the watershed water resources management field has been carried out.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：N945.25

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