松耦合模型驱动的流域水资源管理决策支持系统研究及应用

发布时间：2018-06-20 17:25

本文选题：松耦合模型驱动 + 流域水资源管理　；参考：《华中科技大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：流域水资源具有发电、供水、航运、灌溉、养殖等多种适用价值和功能，如何合理开发、利用、节约和保护水资源并防治水害是一个事关科学发展的全局性根本性问题，同时也是一个关系国计民生的战略问题。我国水资源相当贫乏，水问题异常突出，且随着人类活动对水资源系统扰动程度的加深以及社会发展进程的高速推进，水资源的供需矛盾将更加严重，另一方面，近些年极端气候事件频发态势进一步增加了流域水资源管理的复杂性与不确定性。如何在流域范围内以最少的水资源、资金和人力的投入获得最大的社会效益、经济效益和环境效益是当前流域水资源管理的首要目标。流域水资源系统是一个受诸多方面因素影响的复杂系统，且流域水资源管理决策过程涉及社会、经济、水文、水动、水工和生态等多个领域，是一个典型半结构化的多层次、多主体、多目标决策问题，以信息管理系统为代表的传统模式已无法适应现代流域水资源管理的需求。基于预报、分析、局部搜索、多目标多属性决策、最优化、模拟、评估、知识、方法、数字化技术等多学科辅助决策运算单元（本文范畴内统称为“模型”，Model）的决策支持系统将辅助流域水资源管理部门更好地开展水资源规划管理工作，，其中保证面向决策需求的动态适应性与异质包容性是决定此类决策支持系统性能的关键。本文首次提出了一种以模型为中心，以决策行为优化环与决策技术优化环双层松耦合迭代优化结构为主要特点的决策支持系统建模与设计方法，定义它为松耦合模型驱动决策支持系统（Loose-couplingModel-driven Decision Support System，简称LCMD-DSS），并详细阐述了其决策机理、体系架构以及相关关键技术。近四年来，这一系统方法被成功应用到包括国家973计划项目应用示范在内的水资源管理实际工程应用中，应用效果表明LCMD-DSS具有良好的异质包容性、动态适应性与普适性推广前景。另一方面，随着相关知识产权保护规范与模型应用协议体系的完善，LCMD-DSS将极大地促进科研院所先进的流域水资源管理领域理论算法与实际工程实践相结合的学-研-产新模式的高速发展，为科学地开展流域水资源管理工作，实现“水资源可持续利用”国家战略提供理论基础与技术支撑。本文的主要研究成果和创新点包括：（1）针对流域水资源管理决策过程多层次、多主体、多目标且半结构化的特点，设计了基于双层迭代优化结构的持续集成松耦合系统体系，明确了系统框架下各相关角色的作用与分工，探讨了这一系统方法在流域水资源管理领域的决策机理，提出了松耦合模型驱动的流域水资源管理决策支持系统方法；（2）针对LCMD-DSS系统集成所面对的海量多源异构数据集成、网络分布式开放模型集成与基于GIS动态生成交互平台搭建等难题，综合运用地球科学、信息科学、计算机科学、空间科学、通信科学、管理科学、经济人文科学等多学科理论和技术成果，结合数字工程方法克服传统信息系统的物理边缘、技术边缘、功能边缘和逻辑思维边缘，建立了流域水资源管理统一数据共享平台，研发了网络分布式模型驱动的水资源管理智能化开放式模型库，设计并实现了基于WPF与GIS的动态生成交互平台，为LCMD-DSS双层迭代优化机制提供了核心技术支撑；（3）针对流域水资源管理情景推演需求，综合考虑不规则边界和复杂地形的浅水流动数值计算问题，基于不规则三角形网格单元求解二维浅水方程的高精度Godunov型有限体积模型；研发了一系列用于数据分析与可视化转换的普适性GP服务，以模型的形式集成到系统开放式模型库，实现了流域水资源管理情景推演的数值仿真及可视化模拟；（4）以国家治水方针、水利部可持续利用治水新思路为指导，以辅助水行政主管部门自上而下调度协调流域水资源为目的，以研究并实现具有普适性意义的流域水资源管理决策支持系统为切入点，以持续优化LCMD方法的系统理论框架（决策行为优化环）与技术储备库（决策技术优化环）为技术路线，开展了LCMD-DSS在流域水资源管理领域的示范推广工作。
[Abstract]:The basin water resources with power generation, water supply, shipping, irrigation, aquaculture and other applicable value and function, how to reasonable development, utilization, conservation and protection of water resources and the prevention and control of water disasters is a matter of scientific development of the overall fundamental issues, strategic issues is also a relationship between the people's livelihood. The water resources in China quite poor, water problems Often prominent, and with the rapid advance of human activity disturbance and deepen the process of social development of the water resources system, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be more serious, on the other hand, extreme climatic events in recent years frequent situation further increase of the basin water resources management of the complex and uncertainty. How in the river basin in the Less water resources, capital and human capital investment to maximize the social benefit, economic benefit and environmental benefit is the primary goal of the basin water resources management. Watershed water resources system is a complex system which is affected by many factors, and the basin water resources management decision-making process involving social, economic, hydrology, water water, industry and ecology In a number of areas, is a multi-level, a typical semi structured multi subject, multi objective decision problem, the traditional mode of management information system as the representative of the modern water resources management has been unable to adapt to the demand of basin. Based on the analysis, forecast, local search, multi-objective multi-attribute decision-making, optimization, simulation, evaluation knowledge, methods, digital technology etc. Unit operation decision multi discipline (this category called "model", Model) of the decision support system of river basin water resources management department will help to better carry out the water resources planning and management, which guarantees the dynamic adaptability and heterogeneous inclusive decision oriented demand is the key of such decision support system performance. This paper For the first time to propose a model for the center, in order to optimize decision-making behavior and decision-making technology optimization decision ring ring double coupling iterative optimization structure as the main characteristics of the support system modeling and design method, define it as a loosely coupled model driven decision support system (Loose-couplingModel-driven Decision Support System, referred to as LCMD-DSS), And elaborated its decision-making mechanism, system architecture and related key technologies. In the past four years, this system has been successfully applied to water resources management including the national 973 Plan project application demonstration, in practical applications, the application results show that LCMD-DSS has good tolerance in heterogeneous, dynamic adaptability and universality of promotion King. On the other hand, with the improvement of related intellectual property protection specification and model application protocol system, the practice of river basin water resources management field theory LCMD-DSS algorithm will greatly promote the Scientific Research Institute of advanced and practical combination of the study research the rapid development of the new mode of production, to carry out scientific management of water resources in river basin to achieve. "To provide a theoretical basis and technical support for the sustainable utilization of water resources" national strategy. The main research results and innovations include:
(1) according to different levels, river basin water resources management decision process of multi subject, multi objective and semi structural characteristics, design the system of continuous integration of loosely coupled system optimization based on double iterative structure, clear the role and division of labor system under the framework of the role of the decision maker of this method in the field of water system resource management Daniel, puts forward a systemic method to support water resources management decision driven loose coupling model;
(2) for massive multi-source heterogeneous data integration of LCMD-DSS system with integrated, distributed open network model integrated with GIS dynamic interactive platform based on the difficulties of scientific, comprehensive use of Earth Science, information science, computer science, space science, communication science, management, multi-disciplinary theory and technology into economic humanities etc. Fruit, combined with digital engineering method to overcome the physical edge, the traditional information system technology edge, edge function and logical thinking edge, establishment of river basin water resources management and unified data sharing platform, developed driven network distributed model of water resources management intelligent open model library, the design and implementation of dynamic WPF and GIS based on Each transaction platform, provides the core technical support for LCMD-DSS double iterative optimization mechanism;
(3) for basin water resources management scenario deduction demand, considering the irregular boundary and complex topography of shallow water flow numerical calculation, finite volume high precision Godunov model with irregular triangular meshes based on 2D shallow water equations; a series of data analysis and visualization for conversion of the universal GP service development In the form of service, integrated into the open system model base model, the numerical simulation and visualization simulation of river basin water resources management deduction;
(4) to the national water policy, the Ministry of water resources sustainable utilization of the new thinking of water as a guide to the basin water resources administrative departments of water assisted top-down coordination for the purpose of the research and implementation of catchment water resources management decision support system of universal significance as the starting point, with the theory of the system framework of LCMD method (continuous optimization no Policy behavior optimization and technical reserve (ring) optimization strategy ring) for technical route, to carry out LCMD-DSS in the field of water resources management in the demonstration and extension work.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：N945.25

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