十三五时期我国能源消费组合模型预测——兼及对经济安全条件影响的量化研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 19:14

本文关键词：十三五时期我国能源消费组合模型预测——兼及对经济安全条件影响的量化研究　出处：《江苏社会科学》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】："十三五"时期是我国改革开放以来经济发展的重要拐点,能源消费受到经济发展和气候、环境问题的双重约束。本文从多角度、运用多种方法预测了"十三五"时期我国的能源消费总量,同时测度了能源消费对我国经济安全的影响程度。研究表明,2020年我国能源消费总量将达到48.8亿吨标准煤,其中基于四个角度能源弹性系数、能源消费波动规律、产业结构、人均能源消费的预测值分别为48.5亿吨标准煤、46.9亿吨标准煤、49.2亿吨标准煤、50.7亿吨标准煤。2020年我国石油对外依存度将会达到67.5%,经济安全条件得分仅为25分。
[Abstract]:"13th Five-Year" period is an important turning point of China's economic development since the reform and opening up, the dual constraints of energy consumption by economic development and climate and environmental problems. This paper, using a variety of methods to predict the "13th Five-Year" period of China's total energy consumption, and measure the influence degree of the energy consumption on the economic security of our country. Research shows that in 2020 China's total energy consumption will reach 48.8 tons of standard coal, which is based on four aspects, the elasticity of energy law, energy consumption fluctuation of industrial structure, per capita energy consumption forecast value was 48.5 tons of standard coal, 46.9 tons of standard coal, 4 billion 920 million tons of standard coal, 50.7 tons of standard coal. In 2020, China's foreign dependence on oil will reach 67.5%, and the economic security conditions are only 25 points.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F426.2
【正文快照】： “十三五”时期是我国改革开放以来经济发展的重要拐点,针对2020年全面建成小康社会的宏伟目标,十八大报告中提出“实现国内生产总值和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番”。经济的发展离不开能源的消费,就国际、国内的能源大形势而言,“十三五”时期能源的消费是有前提、受约束

【相似文献】