“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化水平对中国钢铁产品出口的影响

发布时间：2017-12-28 00:06

本文关键词：“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化水平对中国钢铁产品出口的影响　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为缓解基建领域产能过剩、推动"丝绸之路"沿线国家贸易便利化及互联互通,中国政府于2013年首次提出"一带一路"重大战略构想。由中国政府主导的"一带一路"战略本质上是一种国际区域经济合作新模式,其基本原则为平等互利,根本属性是共同发展。该战略明确提出以基础设施建设合作为突破,将提振这一区域对钢铁产品的需求,为中国钢铁产品出口创造了新的历史契机。而随着区域贸易的最新发展,关税及非关税措施等传统贸易壁垒对贸易的阻碍作用及影响力逐渐减弱,提升贸易便利化水平以促进贸易成本的进一步降低已成为各国政府及学者关注的新热点。聚焦"一带一路"重大战略构想,基于我国钢铁产业产能过剩、出口增长乏力的现实困境,测算"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易便利化水平并进一步分析其对我国钢铁产品出口的促进作用具有重大理论及现实意义。首先,本文在梳理国内外学者对贸易便利化及"一带一路"重大战略构想已有研究的基础上,结合各经济组织及该领域权威学者对贸易便利化内涵的诠释,构建了包括五个一级分项指标、共计18个二级具体指标的贸易便利化水平评价体系,并利用主成分分析法精确计算了每个一级指标对总体便利化水平的贡献比例。接着对"一带一路"沿线45国和中国的贸易便利化水平综合指标及各个分项指标水平进行测算,测算结果表明:"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易便利化程度较低,一半以上的沿线国家贸易不便利;从地理位置上来看,明显呈现出"两边高、中间低"的特点。然后,本文构建引力模型,选取中国对"一带一路"沿线国家钢铁产品出口贸易数据以及其他解释变量数据,时间跨度为2008年到2015年共八年,分别实证检验了沿线国家贸易便利化水平综合指标和五个分项指标对中国钢铁产品出口的影响。实证结果显示:"一带一路"沿线国家国内生产总值、进口国人口规模、进口国市场开放程度、进口国贸易便利化水平是影响中国对其钢铁产品出口的重要因素,其中,尤以贸易便利化对出口增长的影响最为显著,而是否签订自由贸易协定这一虚拟变量未通过显著性检验;在五个分项指标中,对中国钢铁产品出口的影响通过显著性检验的解释变量有政府规制、电子商务以及金融服务,其他两个则未通过显著性检验;对于贸易潜力测算的结果显示,中国对中亚地区钢铁出口贸易已经饱和,进一步增加出口难度较大,而对东亚和南亚诸国则仍然有非常大的贸易发展潜力,值得特别关注。最后,基于本文的发现给出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:In order to alleviate infrastructure overcapacity, promote the "Silk Road" along the national trade facilitation and interoperability, China government first proposed a major strategic concept of The Belt and Road "in 2013. By the Chinese government led "The Belt and Road" strategy is essentially a kind of international regional economic cooperation in the new model, the basic principle of equality and mutual benefit, common development is the basic attribute of. The strategy clearly points out that the breakthrough of infrastructure construction cooperation will enhance the demand for steel products in this area and create a new historical opportunity for the export of Chinese steel products. With the latest development of regional trade, the barriers and barriers of traditional trade barriers such as tariff and non-tariff measures on trade have gradually weakened. Improving the level of trade facilitation and promoting the further reduction of trade costs has become a new hot topic among governments and scholars. The great strategic concept focusing on "The Belt and Road" dilemma of capacity of Chinese steel industry overcapacity, weak export growth based on the level of trade facilitation measure "The Belt and Road along the country and further analysis of its role in promoting China's exports of steel products has great theoretical and practical significance. First of all, based on the analysis of domestic and foreign scholars on trade facilitation and "The Belt and Road major strategic vision on existing research, combined with the economic organization and the leading academics in the field of interpretation of the connotation of trade facilitation, construct the evaluation system of the level of trade facilitation, including a total of five level indicators, 18 two class specific index, and the proportion of contribution of each level indicator of the overall level of facilitation was calculated accurately by using the principal component analysis method. Then on the "The Belt and Road" along the 45 country and Chinese the level of Trade Facilitation Index and each sub index level was calculated. The calculated results show that: "trade facilitation The Belt and Road along the country's low, more than half of the countries along the trade facilitation; from the geographical point of view, showing obvious the characteristics of both high and low in the middle. Then, this paper constructs the gravity model selection of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative along the national steel products export trade data and other explanatory variables, the time span is from 2008 to 2015 a total of eight years, respectively, an empirical analysis of the influence of comprehensive index of the national level of trade facilitation and along the five indexes of Chinese steel product exports. The empirical results show that: "Belt and Road Initiative along the country's GDP, imports of population size, the degree of openness, China import market of importing countries, the level of trade facilitation is an important factor affecting the export of steel products, China which, especially in trade facilitation of export growth is most significantly affected, and whether to sign the free trade agreement of the virtual variables not through the significant test; in the five sub indicators, impact on China steel product exports through the significant test explanatory variable of government regulation, electronic commerce and financial services, the other two are not through the significant test; the trade potential calculation results show that the China steel export trade in Central Asia has been saturated, further increase the export difficulty of East and South Asian countries are still trade development potential is very great, worthy of special attention. Finally, based on the findings of this paper, the policy recommendations are given.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.31;F752.62

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