中国可持续能源安全评价与监管研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 20:32

本文关键词：中国可持续能源安全评价与监管研究　出处：《武汉大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国正处在工业化和城市化的关键发展阶段,中国能源需求总量仍将保持增长态势,在保证能源供应充足和实现低碳、可持续发展之间保持平衡,是确保可持续能源安全的核心问题。"十三五"是中国能源、经济实现低碳转型的关键时期,保证充足有效、优质清洁的能源供应是适应新常态、发展低碳经济的根本基础。所以,在中国能源供需不平衡加重,环境约束趋紧,地缘政治风险上升的背景下,无论是发展低碳经济,还是保障能源安全,开展可持续能源安全评价及监管研究都非常有必要。本研究旨在分析中国能源安全现状的基础上,开展中国可持续能源安全评价,研究可持续能源安全监管问题,然后提出有针对性的中国可持续能源安全政策建议。具体如下:(1)中国能源安全的现状分析利用历史资料分析法从能源供给安全视角和能源使用安全视角分析中国能源安全现状。能源供给安全主要从能源储量、能源供需缺口与能源价格方面分析,能源使用安全主要从能源环境效应、能源经济效应和能源系统的低碳转型与可持续发展方面分析。中国能源供给安全面临国内供需不平衡的缺口不断扩大以及能源价格波动带来的供应不确定性。中国能源使用安全面临能源利用带来的严重的环境负外部性和经济利用效率较低以及能源系统的可持续发展能力较弱的问题。(2)中国可持续能源安全评价体系构建与实证分析首先,根据可持续能源安全的涵义,提出能源可用性、可获性、可购性、可接受性及可发展性五个准则,选用15个评价指标,构建了中国可持续能源安全评价指标体系。然后,运用熵权TOPSIS法建立综合评价模型,对2005-2015年期间中国可持续能源安全进行实证研究,得出中国可持续能源安全水平。接着,运用K-均值聚类法对各年中国能源安全水平进行等级划分,从政策演变视角分析中国可持续能源安全变化趋势。最后,运用灰色关联度分析方法,分析各评价指标对中国可持续能源安全的影响程度。得出结论:在2005-2010年和2010-2015年期间中国可持续能源安全水平均呈现先降后升的态势。2005年至2015年,中国能源具有良好的可接受性和可发展性,然而可获性持续下降。能碳强度、能源消费多样性、非化石能源消费比例是对中国可持续能源安全水平影响最大的三个影响因子。(3)可再生能源配额制视角的可持续能源安全监管分析首先,根据政府监管部门与存在竞争关系的发电企业之间的博弈关系建立了演化博弈模型,求解了博弈系统的复制动态方程,得到了多个均衡解。然后,运用系统动力学方法建立可再生能源配额制监管的多方演化博弈仿真模型,并运用仿真手段验证各均衡点处的演化稳定性。发现在静态惩罚机制下,博弈系统不存在演化稳定均衡。因此,将模型中的静态惩罚机制改进为考虑企业竞争关系的动态惩罚机制。在动态惩罚机制条件下,对新的博弈系统进行了仿真分析,结果发现改进动态惩罚机制下各参与方随着时间和博弈次数的增加,逐渐收敛于一个稳定状态,博弈系统存在演化稳定策略。并运用雅克比矩阵特征值判断方法,从理论上验证了动态惩罚机制下博弈系统存在演化稳定策略,而且该演化稳定策略与系统动力学仿真结果一致。最后,利用系统动力学的模拟仿真功能,分析若干关键变量对演化均衡的影响。可持续能源安全综合评价的结果以及可持续能源安全监管问题的研究结果可以为中国能源战略制定和可持续能源安全监管政策的制定提供理论参考和决策支持。
[Abstract]:China is at a critical stage of development of industrialization and city, the total energy demand Chinese will still maintain growth, to ensure adequate supply of energy and low carbon, keep the balance between sustainable development, is the core issue to ensure sustainable energy security. "13th Five-Year" is the key period of economic China energy, low carbon transformation, guarantee adequate and effective, high-quality clean energy supply is to adapt to the new norm, the fundamental basis for the development of low-carbon economy. Therefore, in China energy supply and demand imbalance is aggravating, environmental constraints tightening, geopolitical risks rise in the background, whether it is the development of low-carbon economy and energy security, to carry out research on sustainable energy safety evaluation and supervision it is very necessary. This study aims to analyze the current situation of energy security Chinese on carrying out the evaluation of sustainable energy security China, research on sustainable energy safety supervision The problem, then put forward Chinese sustainable energy security policy recommendations. The details are as follows: (1) analysis of the current situation of China energy security by using the historical data analysis from the perspective of energy supply security and energy security perspective analysis of the current situation of energy security China. Energy supply security mainly from the energy reserves, energy supply and demand gap analysis and energy prices the main energy from energy security, environmental effect analysis of low carbon transformation and sustainable development of energy economy effect and energy system. China energy supply security faces the domestic supply and demand imbalance widening gap and energy price fluctuations of supply uncertainty. China energy security is facing energy use brought serious negative environmental externalities and the economic efficiency is low and the ability of sustainable development of energy system is weak. (2) China can hold Continued construction of the first analysis and empirical evaluation system of energy safety, according to the meaning of sustainable energy security, energy availability, accessibility, affordability, acceptability and development of the five criteria, select 15 evaluation indexes, constructed the sustainable energy security evaluation index system China. Then, using entropy based the comprehensive evaluation model of TOPSIS method, an empirical study on Chinese sustainable energy security during the period of 2005-2015, the China sustainable energy safety level. Then, for each year China energy security level grade division using K- means clustering method, from the policy evolution trend analysis China sustainable energy security change perspective. Finally, using the method of Grey Relational Analysis analysis, the degree of influence of each evaluation index of China sustainable energy security. Conclusion: in the 2005-2010 years and 2010-2015 years Chinese sustainable energy security water The average decline to rise after.2005 years to 2015, China energy has good acceptability and development, however, continued to decline. The availability of carbon intensity, energy consumption, diversity, non fossil energy consumption ratio is China on sustainable energy security level the effect of three factors (. 3) renewable energy quota system from the Perspective of sustainable energy safety supervision analysis firstly, according to the government and the game relationship exists between the power generation enterprise competition evolutionary game model was built. The replicated dynamic equation solved game system, multiple equilibrium solutions are obtained. Then, the multi evolutionary game simulation model based on system dynamics method renewable energy quota system of supervision, and using the simulation method verify the stability of the equilibrium point of evolution. Found in the static penalty mechanism, the game system does not exist in the evolution. Set the balance. Therefore, the static model of the punishment mechanism is improved considering the dynamic punishment mechanism of competition between the enterprises. In the dynamic conditions of punishment mechanism, new game systems are analyzed. The results showed that the improved dynamic mechanism to punish the parties involved in the game with the increase of time and frequency, gradually converge to a in steady state, the evolutionary stable strategy game system. And using the Jacobian matrix method to determine the characteristic value from theory to prove the existence of the evolutionary stable strategy game system dynamic mechanism of punishment, and the evolutionary stable strategy and system dynamics simulation results. Finally, the simulation function of system dynamics, analysis of the impact of several key variables of evolution equilibrium. The results of the comprehensive evaluation of sustainable energy safety and sustainable energy research safety supervision for the Chinese energy strategy The formulation and sustainable energy safety regulatory policies to provide theoretical reference and decision support.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.2

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