工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响

发布时间：2018-01-10 20:10

本文关键词：工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文从生产要素投入端将环境污染引至索洛增长模型,理论考察工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响机制,基于1999—2014年我国30个省份的面板数据,以SO_2排放量作为环境污染水平的代理变量,采用面板平滑迁移回归(PSTR)模型检验全国及分区域工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响效应及区域差异性。研究结果表明:随着工业化进程的不断加快,工业产出及污染排放均呈现不断上升的趋势,但由于资本边际收益递减规律使得这种增长趋势逐渐减弱,最终导致经济增长和环境污染增长趋于稳态,当污染排放增长率降低为负时,经济增长对环境污染的影响作用由正向转变为负向。实证表明我国工业经济结构、经济增长与SO_2排放具有显著的产出水平门槛效应,随着经济产出水平由低区制平滑的过渡到高区制,经济增长对SO_2排放的影响由正向促进作用转变为负向减排效应,但工业经济结构对SO_2排放呈现逐渐增强正向促进作用,可见工业经济结构、经济增长对SO_2排放具有显著的非线性影响。此外,研究发现工业经济结构、经济增长对SO_2排放的非线性影响存在显著的区域差异性,东部地区经济增长与SO_2排放呈现显著的倒"U"型曲线关系,而在中西部地区表现出逐渐增强的促进作用,中部地区的工业经济结构对SO_2排放的促进作用最大,西部其次,东部最弱,研究还表明,减排技术水平以及环境治理投资增加对SO_2污染排放具有遏制作用,能源投资的增加加速了SO_2的排放。在未来经济发展中,应摒弃传统"高投入、高消耗"的工业化模式,政府应实施创新管理,完善环境保护立法,鼓励企业发展环境污染治理方面的技术,避免以环境容量过渡为代价,追求工业经济高质量、可持续发展模式。
[Abstract]:In this paper, environmental pollution is introduced into Solow growth model from the input end of production factors, and the nonlinear influence mechanism of industrial economic structure and economic growth on environmental pollution is investigated theoretically. Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1999 to 2014, SO_2 emissions are used as proxy variables of environmental pollution level. The panel smooth migration regression model is used to test the industrial economic structure of the whole country and sub-region. The nonlinear effects of economic growth on environmental pollution and regional differences. The results show that: with the acceleration of industrialization, industrial output and pollution emissions are on the rise. However, due to the law of diminishing marginal return of capital, this trend of growth gradually weakened, leading to the growth of economic growth and environmental pollution tend to steady, when the growth rate of pollution emissions decreased to negative. The effect of economic growth on environmental pollution has changed from positive to negative. The empirical results show that China's industrial structure, economic growth and SO_2 emissions have a significant threshold effect of output level. With the smooth transition of economic output from low region system to high area system, the effect of economic growth on SO_2 emissions changes from positive to positive to negative emission reduction. However, the industrial economic structure has a positive effect on SO_2 emissions. It can be seen that the industrial economic structure and economic growth have a significant nonlinear effect on SO_2 emissions. It is found that there are significant regional differences in the nonlinear effects of industrial economic structure and economic growth on SO_2 emissions, and the relationship between economic growth and SO_2 emissions in eastern China shows a significant inverted "U" curve. In the central and western regions, the industrial economic structure of the central region has the greatest contribution to SO_2 emissions, followed by the west, the weakest in the east, the study also shows that. The technical level of emission reduction and the increase of investment in environmental control have a restraining effect on SO_2 pollution emissions, and the increase of energy investment accelerates the emission of SO_2. In the future economic development, the traditional "high investment" should be abandoned. The government should implement innovative management, perfect the legislation of environmental protection, encourage enterprises to develop the technology of environmental pollution treatment, and avoid the cost of environmental capacity transition. The pursuit of high-quality industrial economy, sustainable development model.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：吉林大学哲学社会科学研究重大课题培育项目“创新驱动发展与国家创新体系建设研究”(批准号:2015ZDPY09)
【分类号】：F124.1;F424.0;X22
【正文快照】： 自从1978年改革开放30多年以来,中国GDP年均增长率达10%,人们的生活水平得到显著改善,然而,在经济高速增长的同时,中国环境污染日趋严重,生态环境受到严重破坏,使得经济遭受严重损失。当前,中国正处于重工业化发展的中后期阶段,不少地方政府纷纷开始以工业化为工作重点,随着工

【相似文献】