基于熵权法与模糊风险评价的EPC项目投标决策研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 01:00

本文关键词：基于熵权法与模糊风险评价的EPC项目投标决策研究　出处：《西安科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：EPC总承包模式以高速度、低成本地建造大型工业项目和高层建筑而在国际建设工程领域备受青睐。由于通常采用总价合同方式,EPC承包商承担着项目建设的大多数风险,从而使项目的投标决策显得尤为重要。本文从选取最符合企业发展的EPC项目进行投标的角度出发,将投标决策划分为两个阶段,第一阶段为初步投标决策,主要任务是从招投标市场筛选出符合企业战略目标的EPC项目进行投标跟踪,即项目筛选阶段;第二阶段是最终投标决策,即通过投标风险分析确定是否投标,并给出投标建议以及投标风险管理策略。在项目筛选阶段,结合企业战略目标,运用熵权理论建立了初步投标决策模型;而在最终投标决策阶段,运用模糊风险评价法考虑项目层面的风险等级大小,建立基于项目风险管理的最终投标决策模型。具体地,采用定性和定量相结合的方式,结合德尔菲法与模糊层次分析法确定风险指标体系的权重,并结合专家调查法与风险矩阵判定各底层风险指标等级,利用模糊综合评价法将权重与底层风险指标等级综合,计算出所有层级风险指标等级的值,之后,根据企业可接受风险水平和风险管控范围,解决是否投标的问题。此外,文中还构建出EPC项目投标风险决策的流程图,以利于企业投标决策的实施。将熵权法与模糊风险评价有机结合起来进行投标决策,扬长避短、优势互补,可以克服仅采用熵权理论进行投标决策信息不完整性战略投标决策的深度不足的问题,同时也有效地改善了仅采用模糊风险评价进行投标决策时受决策者专业知识的限制及其主观偏好等因素的影响。采用两阶段投标决策使决策更为科学合理,同时也能提高决策的效率,具有很好的实用价值。
[Abstract]:The EPC general contracting mode is popular in the international construction engineering field because of its high speed and low cost in the construction of large industrial projects and high-rise buildings. The EPC contractor bears most of the risks of the project construction, which makes the bidding decision of the project seem particularly important. This paper starts from the point of view of selecting the EPC project which is the most suitable for the development of the enterprise. The bidding decision is divided into two stages. The first stage is the initial bidding decision. The main task is to screen out the EPC projects which accord with the strategic objectives of the enterprise from the bidding market, that is, the project screening stage; The second stage is the final bidding decision, that is, through the bidding risk analysis to determine whether to bid, and give the bidding proposal and bidding risk management strategy. In the project screening stage, combined with the strategic objectives of the enterprise. A preliminary bidding decision model is established by using entropy weight theory. In the final bidding decision-making stage, the fuzzy risk evaluation method is used to consider the risk level of the project level, and the final bidding decision model based on project risk management is established. Using the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods combined with Delphi method and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of the risk index system and combined with the expert survey method and risk matrix to determine the bottom level of risk indicators. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to synthesize the weight with the bottom risk index grade, and then calculate the value of all levels of risk index grade, and then, according to the acceptable risk level and risk control range of the enterprise. In addition, the flow chart of EPC project bidding risk decision is constructed. In order to facilitate the implementation of enterprise bidding decision, the entropy weight method and fuzzy risk evaluation are organically combined to make bidding decision, which takes advantage of advantages and avoids weaknesses. It is possible to overcome the problem of insufficient depth of bidding decision-making based on entropy weight theory. At the same time, it also effectively improves the decision making with fuzzy risk evaluation, which is influenced by the decision makers' professional knowledge and subjective preferences. The two-stage bidding decision makes the decision more scientific and reasonable. At the same time, it can improve the efficiency of decision-making and has good practical value.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.92

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