基于社会核算矩阵的中国煤炭供给变动对区域产业影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 03:46

本文选题：煤炭产业　切入点：供给侧改革　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国的资源禀赋条件决定了煤炭资源是我国能源结构的主体,伴随着清洁能源兴起的大趋势,煤炭产业的发展受到了巨大冲击。现有煤炭资源的区域分配不均与其经济发展水平不匹配的矛盾依然存在。研究煤炭供给跨区域效应的根本目标是优化中国煤炭的跨区域配置。本文在可持续发展理论、一般均衡理论和投入产出理论的指导下,通过分析中国煤炭产业发展现状,发现煤炭产业存在产能过剩、利用效率低下、企业亏损严重以及行业盈利情况差等问题;在对前人研究成果梳理的基础上,依据2010年中国30省区市区域投入产出表编制社会核算矩阵,从煤炭供给角度,借助乘数分析和结构路径分析研究其在区域间的乘数效应,印证其对经济发展具有重要影响,并量化其影响程度。同时识别其主要的影响路径,寻找关键的节点部门,为优化煤炭跨区域配置提供参考。乘数分析实证结果表明我国不存在显著的直接煤炭资源跨区域流动,仅在内蒙古煤炭部门和山西省煤炭部门出现向河北煤炭部门直接调运煤炭的情况。此外,工业部门的煤炭消费贡献了主要的煤炭消耗。路径识别的结果告诉我们,煤炭?电力路径存在于主要供给变动传导过程,且其对应的整体效应在三个主要供给省的传导路径中均为最高,贡献比重最大。本部分运用情景分析法来识别两种情景下的复合回路中存在的高频节点,情景一下识别出的关键节点包括:内蒙古的化学工业,山西省的金属冶炼及压延加工业和非金属矿物制品业,以及陕西省的通用、专用设备制造业。情景二下识别出的关键节点则是:其他服务业和交通运输和仓储业,此两部门在不同区域同一路径高频出现。最后,通过对路径乘数比较分析,研究发现我国煤炭供给变动乘数效应被众多中间节点扩散传导,间接放大其对总体效应的贡献。基于以上分析,本研究从供给变动的视角分析了中国煤炭供给变动对产业和区域配置的影响。为煤炭产业供给侧改革提出以下政策建议:(1)优化生产开发布局,调整供给结构;(2)重点发展清洁煤电,依靠技术进步突破煤电利用边界;(3)多维度延伸煤炭产业链,重点改造关键节点产业。
[Abstract]:The resource endowment condition of our country determines that the coal resource is the main body of the energy structure of our country, accompanied by the rising trend of clean energy. The development of coal industry has been greatly impacted. The contradiction between the uneven regional distribution of coal resources and the mismatch of its economic development level still exists. The fundamental goal of studying the trans-regional effect of coal supply is to optimize coal in China. In this paper, the theory of sustainable development, Under the guidance of general equilibrium theory and input-output theory, it is found that the coal industry has some problems, such as overcapacity, low utilization efficiency, serious enterprise losses and poor industry profit through analyzing the present development situation of China's coal industry. On the basis of combing the previous research results, the social accounting matrix is compiled according to the regional input-output table of 30 provinces and municipalities in China in 2010. From the perspective of coal supply, the multiplier effect between regions is studied by means of multiplier analysis and structural path analysis. To confirm its important impact on economic development and to quantify its impact. At the same time, to identify its main path of influence and to identify key node sectors, The empirical results of multiplier analysis show that there is no significant cross-regional flow of direct coal resources in China. Only in Inner Mongolia coal sector and Shanxi coal sector directly transfer coal to Hebei coal sector. In addition, coal consumption in the industrial sector contributed to the major coal consumption. The electric power path exists in the main supply changing conduction process, and its whole effect is the highest in the three main supply provinces. This part uses scenario analysis to identify the high frequency nodes in the composite loop under the two scenarios. The key nodes identified in the scenario include the chemical industry in Inner Mongolia. The metal smelting and calender processing industry and non-metallic mineral products industry in Shanxi Province, as well as the general and specialized equipment manufacturing industry in Shaanxi Province, have been identified as key nodes under scenario II: other services and transportation and warehousing industries, At last, through the comparative analysis of path multipliers, it is found that the effect of changing multiplier of coal supply in China is diffused by many intermediate nodes. Indirectly amplify its contribution to the overall effect. Based on the above analysis, This study analyzes the impact of coal supply change on industry and regional allocation from the perspective of supply change. It puts forward the following policy recommendations for the supply-side reform of the coal industry: 1) optimizing the layout of production and development. Adjust the supply structure and focus on developing clean coal power, relying on technological progress to break through the boundary of coal and electricity utilization to extend the multi-dimensional coal industry chain, and to focus on the transformation of key node industries.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.21;F127

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