中国能源类行业周期波动及其对宏观经济的时变影响

发布时间：2018-03-30 12:26

本文选题：能源　切入点：能源类行业　出处：《广东财经大学学报》2017年03期

【摘要】：利用主成分分析方法计算中国能源类行业运行指数,考察能源类行业的周期波动态势,进一步使用时变参数向量自回归模型分析能源类行业周期波动对宏观经济影响的时变特征。结果表明:中国能源类行业周期波动滞后于宏观经济景气波动,平均周期长度约为3年;能源类行业冲击对产出和价格的影响具有明显的顺周期性,在行业发展的繁荣期,其正向冲击可以持续提升产出水平和价格水平,而在萧条期,其正向冲击仅具有短期效应,长期而言则不利于产出水平的增长和价格水平的回升;能源类行业周期波动对宏观经济影响的价格效应明显强于产出效应,对PPI的影响大于CPI。坚定不移地推进能源类行业去产能等供给侧结构性改革措施,可以作为未来扭转供需失衡和价格水平下行现状的政策选择。
[Abstract]:The principal component analysis (PCA) method is used to calculate the operation index of energy industry in China, and the periodic fluctuation situation of energy industry is investigated.The time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model is further used to analyze the time-varying characteristics of the energy industry cycle fluctuations on the macroeconomic impact.The results show that the cycle fluctuation of energy industry in China lags behind the macroeconomic fluctuation, the average cycle length is about 3 years, the impact of energy industry shock on output and price is obviously pro-cyclical, and in the boom period of industry development,The positive impact can continuously improve the output level and the price level, while in the depression period, the positive impact has only short-term effect, but in the long run, it is not conducive to the growth of output level and the rise of price level.The price effect of energy industry cycle fluctuation is stronger than that of output effect, and the effect on PPI is greater than that on PPI.Unswervingly pushing forward supply-side structural reform measures such as deproductivity in the energy industry can be used as a policy choice to reverse the imbalance between supply and demand and the downward trend of price level in the future.
【作者单位】：山西财经大学统计学院;吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(15JJD790010) 国家社会科学重大项目(15ZDA015) 山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(晋规办字[2016]2号) 高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目(晋教科函[2015]26号)
【分类号】：F426.2

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