碳配额分配及其对中国煤炭空间输送格局的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 20:50

本文选题：碳减排　切入点：碳配额分配　出处：《中国矿业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：哥本哈根气候会议上,中国提出了2020年单位GDP碳排放量下降40%-45%的减排目标,为确保2020年中国碳排放目标的实现,2017年1月5日,国家能源局发布《能源发展“十三五”规划》提出,清洁能源将是“十三五”能源供应增量的主体,“十三五”期间,非化石能源消费比重将提高到15%以上,天然气消费比重力争达10%,煤炭消费比重降到58%以下,2020年把能源消费总量控制在50亿吨标准煤以内。碳减排的实施势必要先进行碳配额的分配,而当前关于碳配额分配的影响研究主要集中在分配的原则、方法、影响因素、对碳市场交易的影响等方面,而关于碳配额分配后对中国煤炭空间输送格局的影响研究尚属空白。本文结合碳减排通过碳配额分配影响区域煤炭需求这一路径,参考国际碳配额分配的历史分配法理论,构建包含历史累积排放量、产业结构强度和技术进步水平三个指标的碳配额分配模型,在2020年煤炭消费总量一定的基础上,通过指标权重系数的不同设置不同的情境,基于保障和激励原则进行情境对比,最终确定各地区的碳配额分配方案。并在此基础上,以动力煤为例,使用IPCC清单法核算出在碳配额情境下各地区的动力煤需求量,同时构建回归模型预测2020年中国的煤炭供给总量和无碳排放情境下需求总量。进而利用空间均衡模型理论构建中国煤炭市场空间输送格局模型,通过无碳减排情境和碳减排情境下的对比,进行中国煤炭输送格局的影响研究。本文在碳配额分配及两种情境下煤炭市场空间格局的对比结果表明:(1)北京、天津、上海、海南、甘肃以及宁夏等地区在基于历史分配法的条件下,在动力煤消费的碳配额分配竞争中占有优势,河北、内蒙古、辽宁、山东和河南等地处于劣势;(2)从供给端来看,辽吉3、辽吉4等地区的动力煤在市场竞争中处于劣势,而山西7、山西9等地区在市场竞争中占有优势。从需求端来看,动力煤的输送主要指向江苏、浙江、广东、福建等东部和南部地区,表明这些地区的煤炭需求较为强烈,动力煤需求价格较高;(3)通过不同情境的对比,煤炭区际间的调入调出存在空间套利的可能,不同供给地区的动力煤输送到不同需求地区的竞争优势是有差异的。本文认为,在碳排放情境下,中国对碳配额的分配需兼顾公平和效率原则,鼓励企业进行产业结构升级和技术进步,地方政府应取消对地方煤炭企业的保护,完善煤炭市场交易机制,建设煤炭市场交易平台,提高煤炭市场信息的透明度,煤炭企业按照市场规则进行交易,使社会收益最大化。
[Abstract]:At the Copenhagen climate conference, China set a goal of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 percent by 2020. In order to ensure that China's carbon emissions target for 2020 is met, on January 5, 2017,The State Energy Administration issued the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development, proposing that clean energy will be the main body of the energy supply increment in the 13th Five-Year Plan. During the 13th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to more than 15 percent.The proportion of natural gas consumption will reach 10 percent, the proportion of coal consumption will fall below 58 percent, and the total energy consumption will be controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal by 2020.The implementation of carbon emission reduction is bound to start with the allocation of carbon quotas, and the current research on the impact of carbon quota allocation is mainly focused on the principles, methods, influencing factors, the impact on the carbon market trading, and so on.However, the study on the effect of carbon quota allocation on the spatial transport pattern of coal in China is still blank.Based on the path that carbon emission reduction affects regional coal demand through carbon quota allocation, this paper constructs a method including historical cumulative emissions by referring to the historical allocation theory of international carbon quota allocation.The carbon quota allocation model of the three indicators of industrial structure intensity and technological progress level, on the basis of the fixed total coal consumption in 2020, through the different setting of different situation of index weight coefficient, based on the guarantee and incentive principle to carry on the situation contrast.Finally, the carbon quota allocation scheme for each region is determined.On this basis, taking thermal coal as an example, the IPCC inventory method is used to calculate the coal demand in various regions under the situation of carbon quota, and a regression model is constructed to predict the total coal supply and the total demand under the non-carbon emission situation in 2020 in China.Then the spatial transport pattern model of China's coal market is constructed by using the spatial equilibrium model theory, and the influence of coal transport pattern in China is studied by comparing the carbon-free and carbon-reduction scenarios.In this paper, the results of carbon quota allocation and the comparison of spatial patterns of coal market in two situations show that: 1) Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hainan, Gansu and Ningxia are based on the historical allocation method.In the competition of carbon quota allocation for thermal coal consumption, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shandong and Henan are at a disadvantage.) from the supply side, the thermal coal of Liaoji 3, Liaoji 4 and other regions are at a disadvantage in the market competition.And Shanxi 7, Shanxi 9 and other regions in the market competition has an advantage.From the point of view of the demand side, the transportation of thermal coal mainly points to the eastern and southern areas of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian, indicating that the demand for coal in these areas is relatively strong, and the price of thermal coal is relatively high.There is a possibility of arbitrage between different coal regions, and the competitive advantages of thermal coal transportation to different demand areas are different in different supply areas.This paper holds that in the context of carbon emissions, China's allocation of carbon quotas should take into account the principles of fairness and efficiency, encourage enterprises to upgrade their industrial structure and improve technology, and local governments should abolish the protection of local coal enterprises.Improve the coal market trading mechanism, build the coal market trading platform, improve the transparency of the coal market information, coal enterprises in accordance with the rules of the market transactions, so as to maximize social income.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X24;F426.21

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