中国可再生能源消费对碳排放作用的情景模拟研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 09:23

本文选题：碳排放 + 可再生能源消费　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文的研究内容主要围绕中国可再生能源消费和碳排放两大关键词展开。首先基于实证分析方法确定两者之间的影响关系,然后在确定两者关系的基础上进行未来情景模拟分析,得出相关结论和政策建议。本文的研究工作和主要贡献集中在以下几个方面:(1)验证中国可再生能源消费对碳排放具有抑制作用。本文基于前人研究成果选择经济发展水平、可再生能源消费和碳排放三个变量利用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)进行实证分析,证实当碳排放作为解释变量时,经济发展水平、可再生能源消费和碳排放三者之间存在协整关系,而且可再生能源消费对碳排放具有显著的抑制作用,但是抑制作用微弱。(2)构建了中国“碳排放-可再生能源消费”的系统动力学模型。采用物质流分析法分析了中国能源消费子系统模型、中国经济发展水平子系统和中国生态子系统模型要素间的因果关系和反馈机制,然后研究了中国“碳排放-可再生能源消费”子系统之间的联动关系,构建了中国“碳排放-可再生能源消费”的动力学模型系统。(3)采用情景分析法,对中国“碳排放-可再生能源消费”的系统动力学模型进行了模拟仿真计算并分析了2018-2030年在中国经济中、低、高三种情景下,中国可再生能源消费变化和中国碳排放水平变化状况,并据此提出了中国未来节能减排和可再生能源消费发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper focuses on two key words of renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions in China.First, based on the empirical analysis method to determine the impact relationship between the two, then on the basis of the determination of the relationship between the future scenario simulation analysis, draw relevant conclusions and policy recommendations.The research work and main contributions in this paper focus on the following several aspects: 1) to verify that China's renewable energy consumption can inhibit carbon emissions.Based on the previous research results, this paper chooses the level of economic development, renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) for empirical analysis, and proves that when carbon emissions as explanatory variables, the level of economic development.There is a cointegration relationship between renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions, and renewable energy consumption has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.But the system dynamics model of carbon emission-renewable energy consumption in China is constructed.This paper analyzes the causality and feedback mechanism of the energy consumption subsystem model, the level of economic development subsystem and the ecological subsystem model of China by means of material flow analysis.Then, the paper studies the linkage relationship between China's "carbon emissions-renewable energy consumption" subsystem, and constructs a dynamic model system of "carbon emissions-renewable energy consumption" in China.The system dynamics model of "carbon emissions-renewable energy consumption" in China is simulated and calculated, and the three scenarios of low and high energy consumption in China from 2018 to 2030 are analyzed.According to the change of renewable energy consumption and carbon emission level in China, the policy suggestions on energy saving and emission reduction and the development of renewable energy consumption in China in the future are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X24;F426.2

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