新常态下CPI与PPI背离的货币成因分析

发布时间：2018-05-05 06:36

本文选题：货币政策 + 通货膨胀水平　；参考：《经济经纬》2017年03期

【摘要】：自我国进入宏观经济新常态阶段以来,CPI水平保持低位正增长的同时,PPI水平却出现了连续的下滑态势,二者之间出现了较大程度的背离,这不仅与经济理论不符,同时也使得货币政策调控物价水平的功能受到了严重的制约,经济结构转型受阻。针对这一点,对新常态下CPI与PPI产生背离的货币政策原因进行动态分析。研究发现,不同时期下CPI与PPI对货币冲击反应的差异性引起了CPI与PPI之间背离现象,而这同时也是新常态下货币政策调控二者之间剪刀差效果甚微的原因。故而,中央银行应该强化价格型调节和传导机制,疏通货币政策向实体经济的传导渠道,从而提高货币政策的运行效率和服务实体经济的能力,缓解CPI与PPI之间的背离现象。
[Abstract]:Since China entered the new normal stage of macro-economy, the CPI level has maintained low positive growth while the PPI level has been continuously declining, and there has been a big deviation between the two, which is not only inconsistent with economic theory. At the same time, the function of monetary policy to control price level has been severely restricted, and the economic structure transformation has been hindered. In view of this, this paper makes a dynamic analysis of the causes of the deviation between CPI and PPI in the new normal. It is found that the difference in the response of CPI and PPI to monetary shock in different periods leads to the deviation between CPI and PPI, which is also the reason for the little effect of scissors difference between monetary policy and monetary policy in the new normal state. Therefore, the central bank should strengthen the price-type regulation and transmission mechanism, dredge the transmission channel from monetary policy to the real economy, improve the efficiency of monetary policy and service the real economy, and alleviate the deviation between CPI and PPI.
【作者单位】：吉林大学商学院数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDC008) 国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AZD001)
【分类号】：F424;F726

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