全国性碳交易市场对电力行业的潜在影响——基于多Agent模型

发布时间：2018-05-12 22:36

本文选题：碳排放交易 + 碳配额分配　；参考：《现代电力》2017年04期

【摘要】：建立全国性碳排放交易机制之前,需要设计合理的碳排放交易机制,尤其是初始碳配额分配。采用基于多Agent方法,结合目前使用广泛的统一定价拍卖方式研究初始配额分配中不同的拍卖比例对电力价格、碳价格、碳排放量和发电能源结构的影响。本文还进一步对统一定价拍卖方法和免费分配方法进行了对比。模拟仿真结果表明:随着拍卖比例的增加,电价小幅上涨。同时高比例的拍卖将导致碳价降低、碳排放减少。在发电电源结构中,清洁能源方面将获得快速发展。而且,拍卖方法比免费分配方法在减排方面更加激进,随着拍卖比例提高,拍卖方法对电力行业的影响更加明显。基于以上结果,本文对碳排放交易市场中的拍卖比例提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:Before establishing a national carbon trading mechanism, it is necessary to design a reasonable carbon trading mechanism, especially the initial carbon quota allocation. Based on multiple Agent method, the effects of different auction proportions in initial quota allocation on electricity price, carbon emissions and energy structure of power generation are studied in combination with the widely used unified pricing auction method. This paper also compares the unified pricing auction method with the free allocation method. The simulation results show that the electricity price increases slightly with the increase of auction proportion. At the same time, a high percentage of auctions will lead to lower carbon prices and lower carbon emissions. In the power supply structure, clean energy will be rapidly developed. Moreover, the auction method is more radical in reducing emissions than the free allocation method, and as the proportion of the auction increases, the impact of the auction method on the power industry is more obvious. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations on the auction proportion in carbon emissions trading market.
【作者单位】：天津大学管理与经济学部;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(15JZD021);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(15YJA790091)
【分类号】：F426.61;X196

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