基于离散选择模型的北京市工业疏解环境影响

发布时间：2018-05-14 15:37

本文选题：非首都核心功能疏解 + 产业转移　；参考：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年11期

【摘要】：疏解非首都核心功能将对整个京津冀地区资源环境压力分布空间格局产生重要影响。该文从政策、经济、资源环境3个维度识别了潜在的疏解工业门类,通过Monte Carlo方法确定企业个体规模,运用离散选择模型,综合考虑区位因素、产业资源环境效率等变量,识别了首都重点行业潜在的疏解承接地,并结合企业规模-资源环境效率水平函数,预测京津冀地区的资源环境压力空间变化。结果表明:"十三五"期间,非首都核心功能疏解将会造成北京市工业产值下降7%,主要资源消耗和污染物排放量减少9%以上,能有效缓解北京市水环境压力;京津冀区域除北京外其他地区工业产值平均增长5%左右,显著大于疏解产业带来的资源消耗与污染物排放增长。最后结合各地现有环境压力与承载力,提出了差别化的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Dissolving the core functions of non-capital will have an important influence on the spatial pattern of the distribution of resource and environmental pressure in the whole Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This paper identifies the potential industry categories from the three dimensions of policy, economy and resource environment, determines the individual size of enterprises by Monte Carlo method, applies discrete selection model, considers the factors of location, industrial resources and environment efficiency, and so on. In this paper, we identify the potential regions of the key industries in the capital, and predict the spatial change of the pressure of the resources and environment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with the combination of the scale of enterprises and the level function of the resource and environment efficiency. The results show that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the core function of non-capital will decrease by 7 percent, the consumption of main resources and the discharge of pollutants will decrease by more than 9 percent, which can effectively relieve the pressure of water environment in Beijing. The industrial output value in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions except Beijing increased by about 5% on average, which was significantly larger than the increase of resource consumption and pollutant emission caused by the detoxification industry. Finally, combined with the existing environmental pressure and bearing capacity, the differential policy recommendations are put forward.
【作者单位】：清华大学环境学院;北京清控人居环境研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71774096) 环保部京津冀地区战略环境评价项目(20161660220)
【分类号】：F427;X820.3

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