阶梯电价政策对河北南网用电营销的影响分析及预测评估

发布时间：2018-05-21 20:01

本文选题：阶梯电价 + 居民用电量　；参考：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：居民阶梯电价政策的实施对促进我国经济发展有着十分重要的意义。贯彻实施阶梯电价政策有助于我国电价结构合理化,同时能够很好地反映出不同收入阶层在电力产品成本上的不同,能够达到避免不同收入阶层居民之间的交叉补贴的效果,有助于居民节约用电,提高能效,促进社会经济的发展。本文主要从阶梯电价对居民用电量、负荷曲线、节能减排效果和供电企业经济效益的影响四个方面分析了该政策的直接影响,进而再研究对用电营销的影响,并且找出该政策不足,提出解决方案。针对阶梯电价对居民用电量的影响,采用绘制条形图进行对比的方式,将2011年和2015年的居民用电量在不同人群,不同时间段内进行了对比,得到阶梯电价对不同群体和不同季节影响。针对阶梯电价对负荷曲线的影响,同样采用绘制条形图进行对比的方式,将2011年和2012年政策实施前后两个月的负荷曲线进行对比,通过对比得出政策实施前后,最大负荷增加幅度,峰谷差率和负荷率的变化趋势。针对阶梯电价对节能效果的影响,引入了经济学中的效用函数理论,以家庭的消费预算为约束条件,建立了基于效用理论的阶梯电价政策下居民电力需求量的预测模型,得出以下结论:采取阶梯电价政策可以显著降低居民家庭月用电总量,有利于节约资源,支援现代化建设,同时,如果各个阶梯电价设置越高,节能效果越明显。针对阶梯电价对企业经济效益的影响,居民电力用户电力需求量会影响供电企业的售电量,基于此,综合考量销售电价的变化情况分析供电企业的售电收入变化,根据其售电量的变化以及上网电价的变化趋势,分析供电企业购电量变动以及供电成本变动情况。最后,综合以上四个方面的影响,探讨了阶梯政策对用电营销的影响,对于存在的不足,给出改进意见。
[Abstract]:The implementation of ladder electricity price policy is of great significance to promote the economic development of our country. Carrying out the step price policy will help to rationalize the structure of electricity price in China, at the same time, it can well reflect the differences in the cost of electricity products among different income groups, and can achieve the effect of avoiding cross-subsidization among residents of different income groups. It helps to save electricity, improve energy efficiency and promote social and economic development. This paper analyzes the direct influence of this policy from four aspects: the influence of step electricity price on the consumption of electricity, the load curve, the effect of energy saving and emission reduction, and the economic benefit of the power supply enterprise, and then studies the influence of the policy on the marketing of electricity. And find out the policy is insufficient, propose a solution. In view of the influence of ladder electricity price on the electricity consumption of residents, this paper compares the electricity consumption of residents in 2011 and 2015 in different populations and different time periods by drawing a bar chart. The influence of step price on different population and season is obtained. In view of the influence of step price on load curve, the load curve of two months before and after the policy implementation in 2011 and 2012 is compared by drawing bar chart. The change trend of maximum load increase range, peak and valley difference rate and load rate. In view of the effect of step price on energy saving, the utility function theory in economics is introduced. Based on the consumption budget of household, the forecasting model of household electricity demand under the policy of step electricity price is established based on utility theory. The following conclusions are drawn: adopting the policy of ladder electricity price can significantly reduce the total monthly electricity consumption of residents, which is beneficial to saving resources and supporting modernization. At the same time, if the price of every step electricity is set higher, the effect of energy saving is more obvious. In view of the influence of ladder electricity price on the economic benefit of enterprises, the electricity demand of resident power users will affect the electricity sales of power supply enterprises. Based on this, the change of electricity sales income of power supply enterprises is analyzed by considering the change of selling electricity price. According to the change of electricity sales and the trend of electricity price, the change of power purchase and power supply cost in power supply enterprises is analyzed. Finally, the influence of ladder policy on electricity marketing is discussed, and some suggestions for improvement are given.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;F274

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