基于WSR-CIM模型的水电项目融资风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-05-31 09:48

本文选题：水电项目 + 项目融资　；参考：《技术经济与管理研究》2017年08期

【摘要】：以云南省XW水电站项目融资风险评估为例,文章首先基于WSR概念模型,从"物理、事理、人理"三个维度构建水电项目融资风险评价指标体系;其次,结合AHP方法和CIM模型,根据30位专家的打分情况,利用MATLAB软件精准评估了其风险系数;最后,根据评价结果对该水电项目提出有针对性的风险应对措施。研究结果表明:以XW水电站为代表的云南省水电项目融资风险较低或很低的可能性占到79.16%,水电项目融资风险发生概率处于较低水平,因此该项目融资是可行的;五类风险的影响程度大小依次为:财务风险-政策法规风险-社会风险-自然资源风险-项目方风险。鉴于此,文章从财务风险、政策法规风险、社会风险以及自然资源风险四个方面提出降低融资风险的合理建议,从而对完善我国水电项目融资提供一定的借鉴与参考。
[Abstract]:Taking the project financing risk assessment of XW hydropower station in Yunnan Province as an example, based on the WSR concept model, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of hydropower project financing risk from the three dimensions of "physics, principle and principle", and then combines the AHP method with the CIM model. According to the scoring situation of 30 experts, the risk coefficient of the hydropower project is accurately evaluated by using MATLAB software. Finally, according to the evaluation results, the corresponding risk countermeasures are put forward for the hydropower project. The results show that the low or very low risk of hydropower project financing in Yunnan Province, represented by XW hydropower station, accounts for 79.166.The probability of financing risk of hydropower project is at a low level, so the project financing is feasible. The influence degree of the five kinds of risks is as follows: financial risk, policy and regulation risk, social risk, natural resource risk and project party risk. In view of this, the paper puts forward reasonable suggestions to reduce financing risk from four aspects: financial risk, policy and regulation risk, social risk and natural resource risk, so as to provide certain reference and reference for perfecting the financing of hydropower project in China.
【作者单位】：重庆理工大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目(16BGL122);国家社科基金青年项目(13CGL156) 重庆市社会科学规划项目(2015BS025)
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.61;F426.91

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