基于TOC和SPA的水电EPC项目风险管理

发布时间：2018-06-02 04:32

本文选题：水电工程 + EPC承包商　；参考：《土木工程与管理学报》2017年03期

【摘要】：针对水电EPC项目风险多样且具有显著阶段可变性的特点,本文提出全过程、全方位、全要素、全团队的风险管理方法以实现提高承包商全过程风险管理水平的目的。首先,依据约束理论(TOC)建立三步骤动态反馈环用以识别风险;其次,采用集对分析理论(SPA)中平均联系度和主被动联系度两种综合指标来研究风险定量;最后,根据联系势和全偏联系数两种排序准则寻找系统中最大风险约束。实证分析结果表明,本文提出的风险管理动态循环法有助于水电工程EPC项目承包商逐次从系统中消除最大风险,实现不同范围、不同层次、不同进度下的优化管理。
[Abstract]:In view of the characteristics that the risk of hydropower EPC project is diverse and has significant stage variability, this paper puts forward the risk management method of the whole process, all aspects and the whole team to achieve the purpose of improving the risk management level of the contractor in the whole process. Firstly, a three-step dynamic feedback loop is established according to the constraint theory to identify the risk. Secondly, two comprehensive indexes, the average connection degree and the active and passive correlation degree, are used to study the risk quantification. The maximum risk constraints in the system are found according to two sort criteria, the contact potential and the total partial association number. The result of empirical analysis shows that the dynamic cycle method of risk management proposed in this paper can help the contractor of EPC project to eliminate the maximum risk step by step from the system and realize the optimal management in different range, different level and different progress.
【作者单位】：华东交通大学土木建筑学院;
【基金】：江西省软科学研究计划(20151BAA10047) 江西省社会科学"十二五"规划项目(15GL19) 铁路环境振动与噪声教育部工程研究中心资助(13TM01)
【分类号】：F272.3;F426.92

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