2016年国内外油气行业发展概述及2017年展望

发布时间：2018-06-06 13:26

本文选题：油气行业 + 供需　；参考：《国际石油经济》2017年01期

【摘要】：2016年,全球经济持续复苏,主要经济体走势分化;全球能源消费结构转型加快;国际油价触底反弹;欧佩克与部分非欧佩克产油国达成联合减产协议;世界天然气市场供需宽松;全球工程技术服务市场规模进一步萎缩;世界炼油能力缓慢增长,乙烯新增产能大幅减少;全球成品油供需持续宽松;油气公司经营业绩继续下滑;油气招标总体遇冷,并购市场继续低迷;油气合作经营风险上升。中国能源结构进一步优化;石油消费增速大幅放缓;天然气供需总体宽松;市场化改革加快推进;国内原油产量跌破2亿吨,天然气产量增速继续放缓;炼油能力略有增加,地炼市场份额大增;三大石油公司生产指标小幅下降;海外油气权益产量稳中有增,民营企业和地方国企"走出去"取得新成效;中国陆续发布能源领域"十三五"发展规划;市场化改革的方向和路径更加明晰。2017年,国际油价将实质性回升;全球天然气供需宽松加剧;世界炼油和乙烯能力将继续增长。中国三大油品供应过剩加剧;中国天然气市场总体宽松,国家有望全面放开非居民用气价格;炼油过剩形势更加严峻;油气行业市场化改革将全面深入推进。
[Abstract]:In 2016, the global economy continued to recover, major economies diverged; the transformation of global energy consumption structure accelerated; international oil prices bottomed out; OPEC and some non-OPEC oil producers reached a joint reduction agreement; The world natural gas market is loose in supply and demand; the scale of the global engineering and technical service market is further shrinking; the world refining capacity is growing slowly and the new production capacity of ethylene has been greatly reduced; the global supply and demand of refined oil has continued to be loose; the operating performance of oil and gas companies has continued to decline; Oil and gas bidding overall unexpected, M & A market continued to be depressed; oil and gas cooperation risk increased. China's energy structure has been further optimized; the growth rate of oil consumption has slowed substantially; the supply and demand of natural gas have generally been relaxed; market-oriented reform has accelerated; domestic crude oil production has fallen below 200 million tons, and the growth rate of natural gas production has continued to slow down; and the refining capacity has increased slightly. The production index of the three major oil companies has decreased slightly, the output of overseas oil and gas rights and interests has increased steadily, private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises have made new achievements in "going out", and China has successively issued the "13th Five-Year Plan" in the field of energy resources. The direction and path of market-oriented reform will become clearer. In 2017, international oil prices will recover substantially; global natural gas supply and demand will ease up; and the world's oil refining and ethylene capacity will continue to grow. China's three major oil supply oversupply intensified; China's natural gas market is generally loose, the country is expected to fully liberalize non-resident gas prices, refining surplus situation is more severe, oil and gas industry market-oriented reform will be comprehensively and deeply promoted.
【作者单位】：中国石油集团经济技术研究院;
【分类号】：F416.22

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