“绿电”替代“火电”的进程分析与潜力评估

发布时间：2018-06-11 16:29

本文选题：“绿电” + “火电”　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前,在能源安全和环境污染的双重压力下,调整我国以化石能源为主的能源结构,大力发展清洁能源已经成为高度共识。“绿电”作为清洁能源开发利用的最主要形式,在能源调整过程中扮演着越来越重要的角色。然而,近年来“绿电”发展过程中存在着开发缓慢、核心技术缺乏和政策选择等问题,不禁使人们疑惑“绿电”能否在既定时间和规模内完成对“火电”的替代,“绿电”替代“火电”的最优替代又该如何选择。为了对这些问题做出科学判断,在前人研究的基础上,需要对我国“绿电”替代“火电”问题展开更进行深层次研究讨论。因此,本文运用创新扩散模型和福利优化模型,分别从“替代进程”与“替代潜力”两种视角对电力替代问题进行了耦合分析。首先,考虑到“绿电”发展过程对技术依赖性较强这一原因,本文借助了主要反映技术性能对产品发展有重要影响作用的创新扩散模型对电力市场的扩散过程进行描述。明确了“绿电”扩散过程中的重要时点及各阶段的时间跨度,结合我国“绿电”发展的实际情况,对“绿电”发展过程进行了阶段划分,结果显示:当前,我国水电已经处于商业化发展阶段,风电和二代核电也已处于产业化发展阶段,而三代核电还处于项目示范阶段。对“绿电”的阶段划分和各阶段发展特征的详细描述与分析,为政府各阶段的自身角色定位和各阶段电力政策的制定提供了理论依据。其次,在扩散预测基础上,通过对发电能源未来各时点发电量及最大潜在发电量的预测评估得出:未来一段时间内,我国仍将以“火电”为主,“绿电”作为电力市场的重要补充,将发挥越来越重要的作用。水电和核电作为“绿电”最主要来源,开发速度相对缓慢。在技术层面对电力替代规模进行分析基础上,进一步从现实层面出发,将人们普遍关注的环境问题考虑在内,构建了包含“环境成本”的电力系统社会福利优化模型。通过对比分析加入“环境成本”前后使社会福利最大化的各能源发电量得出:加入“环境成本”之前,在水电和核电满发的基础上,煤电发电量越多,电力系统社会福利越大;加入“环境成本”之后,“绿电”发电量越多,电力系统社会福利越大;最后,针对“绿电”替代“火电”过程中的存在的问题,给出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:At present, under the dual pressure of energy security and environmental pollution, it has become a high consensus to adjust the energy structure based on fossil energy and vigorously develop clean energy. Green electricity, as the main form of clean energy development and utilization, plays a more and more important role in the process of energy adjustment. However, in recent years, there are some problems such as slow development, lack of core technology and policy choice in the development of "green power", which makes people doubt whether "green power" can be replaced by "thermal power" within a given time and scale. How to choose the best substitution of green electricity instead of thermal power? In order to make a scientific judgment on these problems, on the basis of previous studies, it is necessary to carry out deeper research and discussion on the substitution of "green electricity" for "thermal power" in our country. Therefore, by using innovation diffusion model and welfare optimization model, this paper analyzes the power substitution problem from the perspectives of "substitution process" and "substitution potential", respectively. Firstly, considering the strong dependence of green electricity on technology, this paper describes the diffusion process of electricity market with the help of innovation diffusion model, which mainly reflects the influence of technical performance on product development. The important time points and the time span of each stage in the process of "green electricity" diffusion are defined. According to the actual situation of the development of "green electricity" in China, the development process of "green electricity" is divided into stages. The results show that: at present, Hydropower in China is in the stage of commercial development, wind power and second-generation nuclear power are also in the stage of industrialization development, and the third generation of nuclear power is still in the stage of project demonstration. The detailed description and analysis of the stage division and development characteristics of "Green Power" provide a theoretical basis for the role orientation of each stage of the government and the formulation of power policy in each stage. Secondly, on the basis of diffusion prediction, it is concluded that thermal power will still be the main source of power generation in China for some time to come, through the prediction and evaluation of power generation and maximum potential power generation at various points in the future. "Green electricity" as an important supplement to the electricity market, will play an increasingly important role. Hydropower and nuclear power as the main source of green electricity, the pace of development is relatively slow. On the basis of analyzing the scale of electric power substitution from the technical level, and considering the environmental problems that people pay close attention to, the optimization model of power system social welfare including "environmental cost" is constructed. Through comparative analysis of the energy generation before and after joining "environmental cost" to maximize social welfare, it is concluded that before adding "environmental cost", on the basis of full generation of hydropower and nuclear power, the more coal power generation, the greater the social welfare of power system; After the introduction of "environmental cost", the more green electricity is generated, the greater the social welfare of power system is. Finally, some policy suggestions are given to solve the problems existing in the process of "green electricity" replacing "thermal power".
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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