农业税废除对农村工业增长效应及趋势波动研究——以安徽省为例

发布时间：2018-06-11 20:43

本文选题：农业税废除 + 农村工业　；参考：《生态经济》2017年09期

【摘要】：虽然国内学者对农业税废除促进农村工业发展这一结论深为其然,但鲜有深入研究政策效力的趋势波动,仅仅将其长期递减归结为时效因素,而对内在路径研究也莫衷一是,缺乏系统整合。通过对已有研究中作用机理的系统梳理,基于安徽省2000—2014年县域面板数据,运用面板数据回归对这一效应进行实证检验。结果表明,这一政策的增长效应和长期递减趋势与理论预期相符,但短期表现出波动趋势,在时效衰减说基础上提出政策交互效应说,用城镇化发展的外部性解释趋势差异,城镇化发展推动了城乡工业联动发展和非城镇化转移下的要素结构优化,在短期内表现为政策效应增强,进而根据上述结论提出相应政策建议。
[Abstract]:Although domestic scholars are deeply aware of the conclusion that the abolition of agricultural tax promotes the development of rural industry, there are few in-depth studies on the trend fluctuation of policy effectiveness, and only the long-term decline of agricultural tax is attributed to the time-effect factor, and there is no agreement on the internal path study. Lack of system integration. Based on the county panel data of Anhui province from 2000 to 2014, this paper makes an empirical test on this effect by using panel data regression. The results show that the growth effect and the long-term decreasing trend of this policy are in line with the theoretical expectation, but the fluctuation trend is shown in the short term. The policy interaction effect theory is put forward on the basis of the time-effect attenuation theory, and the trend difference is explained by the externality of urbanization development. The development of urbanization promotes the optimization of the structure of the elements under the linkage development of urban and rural industries and the transfer of non-urbanization. In the short term, the policy effect is enhanced, and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward according to the above conclusions.
【作者单位】：安徽大学农村改革与经济社会发展研究院;安徽大学经济学院;
【基金】：安徽大学农村改革与经济社会发展协同创新中心课题“安徽乡村工业的历史、现状和未来”
【分类号】：F427;F812.42

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