基于低碳效益的风电建设项目投资决策分析及模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 20:07

本文选题：风电建设项目 + 投资决策　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国社会经济的快速发展和环境问题的日益突出,传统能源已经无法完全满足人类的电力需求和环境要求,因此以低碳发展为目标的可再生能源利用已成为必然趋势。其中,风能作为发展技术相对成熟,应用范围相对广泛的可再生能源得到了越来越多的重视。然而目前我国大规模弃风限电现象的出现,造成了风能资源大量浪费,碳减排功能无法实现以及项目效益严重低下的问题,因此实现风电项目的低碳发展成为上述问题解决的有效途径之一。针对风电项目的低碳发展,本文认为风电项目的投资决策作为项目开展的前提条件,对风电项目建设的经济性、电网布局的稳定性以及电源结构的优化都起着至关重要的作用。因此本文提出从低碳效益的角度进行风电项目的投资决策,有效控制风电项目盲目开发的同时增加了风电项目的经济效益,促进了风电项目的低碳发展。本文首先进行了大量与低碳效益以及风电项目决策现状有关的文献和资料研究,定义了低碳效益的内涵,并基于SLEPT法分析了风电项目的决策环境,为后文指标体系及模型的构建提供了理论支撑。接着本文分析了影响风电项目投资决策一般因素并丰富了其低碳内涵,同时挖掘了基于环境控制的新低碳影响因素,并在此基础上从低碳环境、低碳政策、经济效益、低碳技术、自然条件和社会影响六个方面建立了低碳背景下风电项目投资决策指标体系。然后本文对基于三角直觉模糊集与改进TODIM方法的决策模型的构建步骤及处理过程进行了详细介绍。最后本文应用了算例分析,对决策指标体系和决策模型的实用性和有效性进行了验证,决策结果证实了指标体系和决策模型在促进风电项目低碳发展方面具有一定的应用价值。传统的风电建设项目投资决策主要从经济可行性方面进行考虑,具有一定的片面性,本文通过构建基于低碳效益的风电建设项目投资决策体系和模型,增加了风电项目投资的低碳价值,为投资企业实现低碳目标与经济效益的双增长提供了具有借鉴价值的思路和方向。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's social economy and the increasingly prominent environmental problems, the traditional energy has been unable to fully meet the needs of human power and environmental requirements. Therefore, the use of renewable energy with the goal of low-carbon development has become an inevitable trend. Among them, wind energy as a relatively mature development technology, a relatively wide range of renewable energy has been paid more and more attention. However, the phenomenon of large-scale abandonment of wind and limited electricity in our country has caused a large amount of waste of wind energy resources, the failure of carbon emission reduction function and the serious low efficiency of the project. Therefore, the low-carbon development of wind power project becomes one of the effective ways to solve the above problems. In view of the low carbon development of wind power project, this paper holds that investment decision of wind power project is the precondition of project development, which plays an important role in the economy of wind power project construction, the stability of power grid layout and the optimization of power supply structure. Therefore, this paper puts forward the investment decision of wind power project from the angle of low carbon benefit, which can effectively control the blind development of wind power project and increase the economic benefit of wind power project and promote the low carbon development of wind power project. In this paper, a large number of documents and data related to low carbon benefit and decision status of wind power project are studied firstly, and the connotation of low carbon benefit is defined, and the decision-making environment of wind power project is analyzed based on SLEPT method. It provides theoretical support for the construction of index system and model. Then this paper analyzes the general factors that affect the investment decision of wind power project and enriches its low carbon connotation, and excavates the new low carbon influence factor based on the environment control, and on this basis, from the low carbon environment, the low carbon policy, the economic benefit. Six aspects of low carbon technology, natural conditions and social impact have been established to establish the investment decision index system of wind power projects under the low carbon background. Then, the construction steps and processing process of the decision model based on triangular intuitionistic fuzzy set and improved Toim method are introduced in detail. Finally, this paper applies the example analysis to verify the practicability and validity of the decision index system and the decision model. The decision result proves that the index system and the decision model have certain application value in promoting the low carbon development of the wind power project. The traditional investment decision of wind power construction project is mainly considered from the aspect of economic feasibility, which has certain one-sidedness. In this paper, the investment decision-making system and model of wind power construction project based on low carbon benefit are constructed. It increases the low carbon value of wind power project investment, and provides a valuable way of thinking and direction for investment enterprises to realize the double growth of low carbon target and economic benefit.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

【参考文献】