基于加权移动平均法的铁矿石价格预测
发布时间：2018-07-21 10:57
【摘要】：铁矿石的预期价格对矿业公司的决策异常重要,由于影响铁矿石价格的因素众多,加之近些年价格波动明显,对其进行准确预测较为困难。基于加权移动平均法,综合分析铁矿石价格的可能走势,调整权值,考虑最近三年的铁矿石历史价格,得到铁矿石市场价格的改进预测值,分别为2017年525.36元/t、2018年535.13元/t、2019年548.13元/t、2020年551.67元/t,年平均增长率约为3.73%。结合各大相关机构的预测研究,通过概率分布得出未来几年铁矿石价格年均3.73%的增长率可信度较高,可为相关企业决策提供参考。
[Abstract]:The expected price of iron ore is very important to the decision of the mining company. It is difficult to predict the iron ore price accurately because of the many factors influencing the iron ore price and the obvious fluctuation of the price in recent years. Based on the weighted moving average method, the possible trend of iron ore price is analyzed synthetically, the weight value is adjusted, and considering the historical price of iron ore in the last three years, the improved forecast value of iron ore market price is obtained. It's 525.36 yuan / t in 2017, $535.13 / t in 2018, $548.13 / t in 2019, and $551.67 / t in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of about 3.73 yuan. Combined with the prediction research of the major related institutions, the probability distribution shows that the average annual growth rate of iron ore prices in the next few years is relatively high, which can be used as a reference for the decision making of related enterprises.
【作者单位】： 东北大学资源与土木工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目资助(编号:51474049,51674062) 国家青年基金项目资助(编号:51604061) 辽宁省自然科学基金项目资助(编号:2014020040) 辽宁省教育厅重点实验室基础研究项目资助(编号:LZ2014020)
【分类号】：F426.1;F764
本文编号：2135301
[Abstract]:The expected price of iron ore is very important to the decision of the mining company. It is difficult to predict the iron ore price accurately because of the many factors influencing the iron ore price and the obvious fluctuation of the price in recent years. Based on the weighted moving average method, the possible trend of iron ore price is analyzed synthetically, the weight value is adjusted, and considering the historical price of iron ore in the last three years, the improved forecast value of iron ore market price is obtained. It's 525.36 yuan / t in 2017, $535.13 / t in 2018, $548.13 / t in 2019, and $551.67 / t in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of about 3.73 yuan. Combined with the prediction research of the major related institutions, the probability distribution shows that the average annual growth rate of iron ore prices in the next few years is relatively high, which can be used as a reference for the decision making of related enterprises.
【作者单位】： 东北大学资源与土木工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目资助(编号:51474049,51674062) 国家青年基金项目资助(编号:51604061) 辽宁省自然科学基金项目资助(编号:2014020040) 辽宁省教育厅重点实验室基础研究项目资助(编号:LZ2014020)
【分类号】：F426.1;F764
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