我国铜资源供需相互间影响关系研究

发布时间：2018-08-05 12:21

【摘要】：选取1953—2014年我国铜精矿产量、精炼铜消费量两项指标数据,通过构建VAR模型研究我国铜资源产量与消费量相互间影响关系。研究发现我国铜资源供需存在着4~5a的脉冲响应关系。分析后认为,当产量受自身及需求量正向冲击而上升时,应建立完善铜资源战略储备及收购机制并控制生产规模;当产量下降时应扩大铜资源的进口,投放铜资源储备以满足需求。当消费量受自身正向冲击上升时应利用国内外市场以满足需求,当因铜资源价格上升而使得消费量下滑时应通过资源储备的投放来稳定价格以带动消费;当消费量受产量正向冲击而下降时一方面应及时约束需求量的盲目增加,另一方面通过资源储备平稳价格,稳定消费量。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of China's copper concentrate production and refined copper consumption from 1953 to 2014, the relationship between copper resource production and consumption in China was studied by constructing VAR model. It is found that there is a pulse response relationship of 4 ~ 5 years between supply and demand of copper resources in China. After analysis, it is concluded that when the output is positively impacted by itself and demand, the strategic reserve and purchasing mechanism of copper resources should be established and the scale of production should be controlled, and the import of copper resources should be expanded when the output decreases. Invest copper reserves to meet demand. The domestic and foreign markets should be used to meet the demand when the consumption is affected by its own positive impact, and the consumption should be stabilized by the investment of resources reserve to drive consumption when the price of copper resources increases. When the consumption is affected by the positive impact of output, on the one hand, the blind increase of demand should be restrained in time, on the other hand, the consumption should be stabilized through the steady price of resource reserve.
【作者单位】：中国地质大学(北京)人文经管学院;北京交通大学中国产业安全研究中心博士后科研工作站;中国国土资源经济研究院国土资源规划所;
【基金】：国土资源部地质调查项目(12120113093000)
【分类号】：F426.32

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