“低端锁定”还是“挤出效应”——来自中国制造业GVCs就业、工资方面的证据
发布时间：2018-08-09 11:06
【摘要】："低端锁定"是中国制造业嵌入全球价值链(Global Value Chinas,GVCs)后面临的主要困境。近年来发达国家制造业回流与更多新兴经济体的低端嵌入,又展现出GVCs的"挤出效应"。若"挤出效应"取代"低端锁定"成为主要风险,中国制造业存在与GVCs脱钩的可能。本文基于WIOD数据和KPWW方法,选取就业和工资的角度,从高端环节的技术创新能力和低端环节的工资成本优势分析中国制造业的竞争力所在。实证结果显示:低技术劳动力仍是中国制造业的主体,中高端人才规模扩张、质量改善,"低端锁定"尚未彻底解决;低技术劳动力成本优势不再,在相应环节出现"挤出效应"。本文提出短期发挥人口红利余热,中期成为区域价值链的技术制高点,长期重视人才培养的建议,以实现由"世界工厂"向"双环流枢纽"、"夹心层中心"的分工地位调整。
[Abstract]:"low end locking" is the main dilemma that China's manufacturing industry faces after embedding in the global value chain (Global Value). In recent years, manufacturing backflow in developed countries and the low end embedding of more emerging economies have demonstrated the "crowding out effect" of GVCs. If "crowding-out effect" replaces "low end locking" as the main risk, China's manufacturing industry may decouple from GVCs. Based on WIOD data and KPWW method, this paper analyzes the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing industry from the point of view of employment and wage. The empirical results show that the low-skilled labor force is still the main body of Chinese manufacturing industry, the middle-high talent scale expansion, the quality improvement, the "low end locking" has not been completely solved, the low technology labor cost advantage is no longer, and the "crowding out effect" appears in the corresponding link. In this paper, the author puts forward the suggestion of giving full play to the surplus heat of the population dividend in the short term, becoming the technical commanding point of the regional value chain in the medium term, and paying attention to the training of talents for a long time, in order to realize the adjustment of the division of labor from "world factory" to "double circulation hub" and "sandwich layer center".
【作者单位】： 武汉理工大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国战略性新兴产业链全球性布局的核心理论研究”(17BJL015)
【分类号】：F249.2;F424
本文编号：2173879
[Abstract]:"low end locking" is the main dilemma that China's manufacturing industry faces after embedding in the global value chain (Global Value). In recent years, manufacturing backflow in developed countries and the low end embedding of more emerging economies have demonstrated the "crowding out effect" of GVCs. If "crowding-out effect" replaces "low end locking" as the main risk, China's manufacturing industry may decouple from GVCs. Based on WIOD data and KPWW method, this paper analyzes the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing industry from the point of view of employment and wage. The empirical results show that the low-skilled labor force is still the main body of Chinese manufacturing industry, the middle-high talent scale expansion, the quality improvement, the "low end locking" has not been completely solved, the low technology labor cost advantage is no longer, and the "crowding out effect" appears in the corresponding link. In this paper, the author puts forward the suggestion of giving full play to the surplus heat of the population dividend in the short term, becoming the technical commanding point of the regional value chain in the medium term, and paying attention to the training of talents for a long time, in order to realize the adjustment of the division of labor from "world factory" to "double circulation hub" and "sandwich layer center".
【作者单位】： 武汉理工大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国战略性新兴产业链全球性布局的核心理论研究”(17BJL015)
【分类号】：F249.2;F424
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前8条
1 王艾青;;过度劳动及其就业挤出效应分析[J];华东理工大学学报(社会科学版);2006年04期
2 王艾青;;过度劳动及其就业挤出效应分析[J];当代经济研究;2007年01期
3 周勇;;低层次产业对智力的挤出效应[J];西北人口;2008年05期
4 李莹;;农村进城务工人员“挤出效应”的经济学分析[J];山东纺织经济;2006年05期
5 刘艳丽;;试析我国目前“民工荒”的原因及对策[J];湖北广播电视大学学报;2010年02期
6 徐百顺;;经济危机下关于我国大学生就业难的经济学视角分析[J];企业导报;2010年08期
7 李小好;;过度劳动的经济学思考[J];市场论坛;2007年08期
8 陈欣欣;寿志敏;;金融危机下广东省的失业问题研究——基于对外贸易,外商直接投资对广东省就业影响的实证分析[J];商业经济;2009年03期
相关重要报纸文章 前1条
1 记者 艾福梅 曹健;今年大学生就业遭遇“挤出效应”[N];新华每日电讯;2008年
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 赵燕;国有企业的就业挤出效应及其门槛特征[D];东北财经大学;2016年
，本文编号：2173879
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/gongshangguanlilunwen/2173879.html
