云南省某州（市）能源预测模型的研究

发布时间：2018-08-12 19:25

【摘要】：能源是人类社会发展的基础,我国能源的储备总量相对较大,但人均能源占有量不足,能源前景仍然不容乐观。人们对能源的过度开采使得能源的储量在不断的减少,并且还对生态环境造成了严重破坏。改革开放后,我国高度重视能源产业问题积极采取相应措施,虽然在能源领域取得了一定的成就,但在产生成就的同时也带来了不少问题,例如能源利用效率相对较低、能源供需矛盾加剧、环境污染日益严重等,为社会经济可持续的发展带来了一定程度上的阻碍。因此需要加快转变能源发展方式,调整能源消费结构与能源生产结构,建设一个资源消耗量低、环境污染少、经济效益好的国民经济体系和资源节约型社会,科学预测评估我国能源的生产和消费进行,监管与规划能源的使用。这对促进红河州GDP的增加,构建和谐社会和节约型社会,具有很重要的意义。本文从能源消费总量、产业结构、重点耗能行业等方面对红河州能源消费现状进行了分析,并且通过建立因素分解法,从经济因素、技术因素和结构因素三方面对红河州能源消费主要变化特征进行了全面详细的分析。在此基础上,综合运用因子分析法、多元线性回归模型和指数平滑法预测模型,对红河州能耗总量进行了预测,并对误差进行了分析结合各个模型的优点采用离异系数变权组合模型对能源需求进行了建模预测,进一步对红河州的能源消费情况得到了预测精度相对更高和可靠性更好的预测结果。根据红河州能源产业整体消费现状、能源消费过程中的主要变化特征和对能源消费总量进行建立预测模型得到的预测结果,从而指出了能源产业发展过程中所存在的问题,并针对此问题提出了未来红河州能源产业发展的详实对策及建议。未来红河州必须优化产业结构、转变经济增长方式、依靠科技进步和创新提高能源利用率、加强政府的宏观调控、完善市场导向的能源体制,才能实现能源的有效利用和可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Energy is the basis of the development of human society. The total amount of energy reserves in China is relatively large, but the energy per capita is insufficient, the energy prospect is still not optimistic. The over-exploitation of energy causes the decrease of energy reserves and serious damage to the ecological environment. After the reform and opening up, China attaches great importance to the energy industry issues and actively take appropriate measures. Although it has made certain achievements in the energy field, it has also brought many problems, such as relatively low energy use efficiency. The contradiction between energy supply and demand and environmental pollution are becoming more and more serious, which hinder the sustainable development of society and economy to a certain extent. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the transformation of energy development mode, adjust the energy consumption structure and energy production structure, and build a national economic system and a resource-saving society with low consumption of resources, less environmental pollution, and good economic benefits. Scientific prediction and evaluation of energy production and consumption, supervision and planning of energy use. It is of great significance to promote the increase of GDP in Honghe Prefecture and to build a harmonious society and a saving society. This paper analyzes the current situation of energy consumption in Honghe Prefecture from the aspects of total energy consumption, industrial structure and key energy-consuming industries, and establishes a factorization method to analyze the economic factors. The main change characteristics of energy consumption in Honghe Prefecture are analyzed in detail from three aspects: technical factors and structural factors. On this basis, the total energy consumption of Honghe Prefecture is predicted by factor analysis, multivariate linear regression model and exponential smoothing method. The error is analyzed and combined with the advantages of each model. The energy demand is modeled and forecasted by using the divorce coefficient variable weight combination model. Furthermore, the energy consumption in Honghe Prefecture is predicted with higher prediction accuracy and better reliability. According to the overall consumption situation of energy industry in Honghe Prefecture, the main changing characteristics in the process of energy consumption and the forecast results obtained by establishing a prediction model for total energy consumption, the problems existing in the development of energy industry are pointed out. The detailed countermeasures and suggestions for the future development of energy industry in Honghe Prefecture are put forward. In the future, Honghe Prefecture must optimize its industrial structure, change its mode of economic growth, rely on scientific and technological progress and innovation to improve its energy utilization rate, strengthen the government's macro-control, and improve its market-oriented energy system. In order to achieve the effective use of energy and sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.2

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