情景分析法在新药研发价值评估中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-08-17 20:07

【摘要】：“十三五”规划将医药产业划为重点发展产业之一。新药研发是医药产业发展的原动力,而研发成果的转化依赖于对未来收益的可靠计量与评估,因此新药研发的评估构成了医药产业发展的重要组成部分,对新药研发价值的评估也成为了当前整个行业关注的重点领域。本文重点研究内容即是新药研究价值评估过程所涉及的评估方法。在进行资产评估时常使用的办法主要有三种,即市场法、收益法和成本法,即使传统办法各有特点,但面对某些特定对象如新药研发时,传统方法并不能发挥很好的作用。成本法中研发成本的研究成果存在弱对称性,导致评估结果的实际价值差异明显。市场法中可比案例缺乏,因为市场法中可作为可比案例的基础相当薄弱。收益法中新药研发价值的收益存在不确定性,这些都导致传统方法无法适用于该类资产的评估。本文在对情景分析法的实质分析基础上,着重探讨了决策树法的具体运用,构建了该方法的测算模型,并就参数选择做了具体的说明。特别折现率、成功率、自由现金流以及阶段时间的划分等这些参数的求取。做了充分的论证阐述。并在文章的后半部分采用实际案例进行说明,将理论与实际应用相结合,阐释该方法的具体应用。本文的结论得出情景分析法可应用于新药研发的价值评估,不足之处是该方法的参数测算具有一定的主观性,前期成本需要估算实际发生的成本,这对该方法的运用存在一定的限制。该类问题将是本文后续研究的内容。
[Abstract]:The 13 th-5-year-plan classifies the pharmaceutical industry as one of the key development industries. Research and development of new drugs is the driving force of the development of pharmaceutical industry, and the transformation of research and development results depends on the reliable measurement and evaluation of future benefits. Therefore, the evaluation of new drug research and development constitutes an important part of the development of the pharmaceutical industry. Evaluation of the value of new drug research and development has become the current focus of the industry. This paper focuses on the evaluation methods involved in the evaluation process of new drug research value. There are mainly three methods used in asset evaluation, namely, market approach, income approach and cost method. Although the traditional methods have their own characteristics, the traditional methods can not play a good role in the face of some specific objects, such as the research and development of new drugs. There is a weak symmetry in the research results of R & D cost in cost method, which leads to the difference of the actual value of the evaluation results. There is a lack of comparable cases in market law because the basis for comparable cases in market law is rather weak. There is uncertainty about the value of new drug research and development in the income approach, which leads to the traditional method can not be applied to the evaluation of this kind of assets. Based on the analysis of the essence of scenario analysis, this paper mainly discusses the application of decision tree method, constructs the measuring model of this method, and explains the selection of parameters in detail. Special discount rate, success rate, free cash flow and the division of stage time are obtained. A full demonstration is made. In the second half of this paper, a practical case is used to explain the concrete application of the method by combining the theory with the practical application. The conclusion of this paper is that scenario analysis can be used to evaluate the value of new drug research and development. There are some limitations on the application of this method. This kind of problem will be the content of the following research in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.72

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