山西汾酒集团财务风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-09-04 18:48

【摘要】：财务风险指的是企业财务结构不合理,融资不足等,导致公司偿债能力降低的风险。财务风险也是汾酒集团在财务管理过程中必须要面对的问题,客观上是不能够完全消除的。财务风险评价,主要是通过资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表,分析企业财务状况的变动趋势及资产、负债、收益之间的关系,从财务报表的会计信息中挖掘企业内在的财务关系。公司的管理者要综合的运用现代管理和控制手段有效地对财务风险进行分析和评价。同时为获取良好的经济效益,并尽可能地减少损失,构建系统的财务风险评价体系和适当的风险管理和控制机制,进行财务风险的防范与规避。汾酒集团在经营管理过程中财务风险监管相对薄弱,对自身业务情况盲目乐观。在现有的财务风险研究文献中,对酒类上市公司的财务风险评价研究较少,风险产生的主要因素缺乏较为深刻的分析,财务风险状态的判断未形成一套简单又实用的评价体系,形成财务风险的管理措施也缺乏针对性。本文基于财务风险基础理论并结合模糊层次分析法,通过建立财务风险评价体系,对山西汾酒集团财务风险评价进行探讨。首先,主要分析了财务风险评价的背景、意义,研究的内容和方法,说明了本文研究内容的必要性。并对企业财务风险评价的理论基础,财务风险及评价相关概念和背景知识进行介绍,引出财务风险评价体系和一些常用的评价方法。其次,通过实际调研和梳理,研究了山西汾酒集团财务风险管理现状与存在问题,通过对该公司及整个行业近几年的财务数据和指标进行分析,找出其中财务风险存在的问题。再次,汾酒集团财务风险因素识别,分析引起风险的内部和外部因素,并运用专家打分法确定引发汾酒集团财务风险的主要因素。接着,建立汾酒集团财务风险评价指标体系,运用选取指标的原则、方法、依据,结合汾酒现有的评价体系,选取适当的财务指标建立新的评价体系,并构建汾酒集团财务风险评价模型。运用模糊层次分析法对汾酒集团的财务风险评价模型进行构建并进行实证分析。最后,提出汾酒集团股份有限公司财务风险管理对策的建议,运用前面章节的实证分析结果,分别从内部和外部两个方面提出防范、规避、减少财务风险的策略。
[Abstract]:Financial risk refers to the risk that the financial structure of the enterprise is unreasonable and the financing is insufficient, which leads to the reduction of the company's solvency. Financial risk is also the problem that Fenjiu Group must face in the process of financial management, objectively it can not be completely eliminated. Financial risk assessment is mainly based on the balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement, analysis of the changing trend of the financial position of the enterprise and the relationship between assets, liabilities, and income. Excavate the internal financial relation of enterprise from the accounting information of financial statement. The managers of the company should comprehensively use modern management and control means to analyze and evaluate financial risks effectively. At the same time, in order to obtain good economic benefits and reduce losses as much as possible, a systematic financial risk evaluation system and appropriate risk management and control mechanism are constructed to prevent and avoid financial risks. Fenjiu Group in the management process of financial risk supervision is relatively weak, blindly optimistic about their own business situation. In the existing financial risk research literature, there is little research on the evaluation of the financial risk of the listed alcohol companies, the main risk factors are lack of more profound analysis, the judgment of the financial risk state has not formed a set of simple and practical evaluation system. The management measure that forms financial risk also lacks pertinence. Based on the basic theory of financial risk and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, this paper discusses the financial risk evaluation of Shanxi Fenjiu Group through the establishment of financial risk evaluation system. Firstly, it analyzes the background, significance, contents and methods of financial risk assessment, and explains the necessity of this paper. The theoretical basis of financial risk assessment, financial risk and related concepts and background knowledge are introduced, and the financial risk evaluation system and some commonly used evaluation methods are introduced. Secondly, the present situation and problems of financial risk management of Shanxi Fenjiu Group are studied through actual investigation and combing, and the financial data and indicators of the company and the whole industry are analyzed in recent years to find out the problems of financial risk in Shanxi Fenjiu Group. Thirdly, the financial risk factors of Fenjiu Group are identified, the internal and external factors that cause the risks are analyzed, and the main factors that lead to the financial risks of Fenjiu Group are determined by using the expert scoring method. Then, the financial risk evaluation index system of Fenjiu Group is established, and a new evaluation system is established by using the principle, method and basis of selecting the index, combining with the existing evaluation system of Fenjiu. And build Fenjiu Group financial risk assessment model. The financial risk assessment model of Fenjiu Group is constructed by using Fuzzy Analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and the empirical analysis is carried out. Finally, the paper puts forward the suggestions of financial risk management of Fenjiu Group Co., Ltd., and puts forward the strategies of preventing, avoiding and reducing financial risk from the internal and external aspects using the results of empirical analysis in the previous chapters.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.82

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