中印制造业出口复杂度及其影响因素的比较研究

发布时间：2018-10-12 20:54

【摘要】：近年来,中国和印度做为经济发展最快的两大经济体,在全球市场中倍受瞩目。两国经济总量和对外贸易发展迅猛,且都积极参与一带一路、孟中印缅经济走廊、区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)等区域性合作组织为其发展助力,社会各界不断涌现出印度或将赶超中国的言论。相对于出口规模,出口复杂度可以反映一国出口产品的质量,决定其经济的长期增长。故本文对中印的制造业出口复杂度及其影响因素进行了比较研究。首先,本文在对比了中印制造业出口现状的基础上,选取2006—2015年45个样本国家(地区)SITCRev.3三位码编码的205种制造业产品的出口数据,采用Rodrik(2006)的出口复杂度的测度方法,测算出各国(地区)制造业的出口复杂度,并就中印的出口复杂度情况做了比较分析。从产品层面来看,世界水平制造业产品的出口复杂度得到显著提高;从行业层面来看,整体来讲,中印制造业行业出口复杂度在波动中呈增长趋势,但是不同行业之间存在较大的差别;从国家层面来看,中国和印度制造业出口复杂度都有显著提升,且中国的出口复杂高于印度,但印度增长势头强劲。其次,为探究两国出口复杂度的提升受哪些因素的影响及影响程度如何,本文结合相关理论引入技术创新、人力资本、人口总数、基础设施建设、外商直接投资和金融发展六个因素,通过构建模型,分别对两国出口复杂度的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,以上六个要素对中印制造业出口复杂度的影响方向和影响程度都有所不同。最后,根据对上述结果的分析,对提升中国制造业出口复杂度、优化中国制造业对外贸易结构提出了相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China and India, the two fastest-growing economies, have attracted much attention in global markets. The total economic volume and foreign trade of the two countries have developed rapidly, and both have actively participated in regional cooperation organizations such as Belt and Road, the Mencia-China Indo-Myanmar Economic Corridor, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and other regional cooperation organizations that have contributed to its development. There is a steady stream of talk that India may overtake China. Relative to export scale, export complexity can reflect the quality of a country's export products and determine its long-term economic growth. Therefore, this paper makes a comparative study on the manufacturing export complexity and its influencing factors between China and India. First of all, on the basis of comparing the current situation of manufacturing exports between China and India, this paper selects the export data of 45 sample countries (regions) with SITCRev.3 three-digit code from 2006 to 2015, and adopts the method of measuring the export complexity of Rodrik (2006). The export complexity of manufacturing industry is calculated and compared with that of India and China. From the product level, the export complexity of the world level manufacturing products has been significantly increased. From the industry level, overall, the export complexity of the Sino-Indian manufacturing industry has shown an increasing trend in the fluctuations. But there are big differences between industries; at the national level, both Chinese and Indian manufacturing export complexity has increased significantly, and China's exports are more complex than India's, but India's growth momentum is strong. Secondly, in order to find out which factors affect the increase of export complexity, this paper introduces technology innovation, human capital, total population, infrastructure construction, combined with relevant theories. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial development are the six factors that influence the export complexity of the two countries. The results show that the above six factors have different influence on the export complexity of China and India. Finally, based on the analysis of the above results, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to improve the export complexity of China's manufacturing industry and optimize the foreign trade structure of China's manufacturing industry.
【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62;F753.51;F414

【参考文献】