基于灰色层次分析模型的电网建设项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-11-20 16:29

【摘要】：电力是国家基础产业,在整个国家发展中处于战略核心地位。随着我国经济的不断发展,对于电力的需求也逐渐增大,近年来对于电网建设项目的需求日益增多。电网建设项目过程复杂、资金量大、参与主体多、建设周期长,项目建设过程中面对的风险越来越复杂。近年来,出现了一些电网建设项目不达标导致人身伤亡的案例,使得人们更加重视电网建设项目的风险。随着新电改的推进,电网建设项目需要考虑的风险更加多样,在项目实施过程中将面临更多不确定性,有效识别和预测新形势下电网建设项目的风险并进行评价分析从而及时制定应对措施,对于降低或规避电网建设项目风险、促进电网建设项目顺利实施具有重要意义。本文首先从相关概念、项目实施过程、风险评估、风险防范等维度分析阐述了电网建设项目风险相关理论;其次从风险识别理论、指标选取原则、设计流程等方面构建了电网建设项目风险评价指标体系;再次,在分析评价方法的基础上,应用灰色系统相关理论,对传统的层析分析评价模型进行改进,构建了基于灰色层次分析的电网建设项目风险评价模型,使得层次分析评价模型更加合理;最后,结合实际电网建设项目,应用评价模型进行了实证分析。通过本文的研究,一方面可以完善电网建设项目风险评价方面的研究,另一方面通过对新形势下的电网建设项目风险进行识别和分析,对电网建设项目防范风险以及提前做好应对策略具有一定的参考意义。
[Abstract]:Electric power is the national basic industry, in the whole national development in the strategic core position. With the development of economy in our country, the demand for electric power is increasing gradually, and the demand for power grid construction project is increasing day by day in recent years. The process of power grid construction project is complex, the amount of funds is large, the main body is more involved, the construction period is long, and the risk in the construction process is becoming more and more complex. In recent years, there have been some cases of casualties caused by the failure of power grid construction projects, which makes people pay more attention to the risk of power grid construction projects. With the development of the new power reform, the risks to be considered in the power grid construction project will be more diverse, and the project will face more uncertainty in the process of implementation. It is of great significance to identify and predict effectively the risks of grid construction projects under the new situation and to evaluate and analyze them so as to formulate corresponding measures in a timely manner to reduce or avoid the risks of grid construction projects and to promote the smooth implementation of grid construction projects. Firstly, this paper expatiates the theory of power grid construction project risk from the relevant concepts, project implementation process, risk assessment, risk prevention and other dimensions. Secondly, the risk evaluation index system of power grid construction project is constructed from the risk identification theory, the principle of index selection, the design process and so on. Thirdly, on the basis of the analysis and evaluation method, applying the relevant theory of grey system, we improve the traditional tomography evaluation model, and construct the risk evaluation model of power grid construction project based on grey hierarchy analysis. Make the AHP evaluation model more reasonable; Finally, combined with the actual grid construction project, the application of the evaluation model for empirical analysis. Through the research of this paper, on the one hand, we can perfect the research on risk evaluation of grid construction project, on the other hand, we can identify and analyze the risk of power grid construction project under the new situation. It has certain reference significance for the grid construction project to guard against the risk and to do the coping strategy well in advance.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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