市场不确定条件下煤制烯烃技术经济分析方法

发布时间：2018-12-13 23:43

【摘要】：建立了一种用于市场不确定条件下现代煤化工项目技术经济分析的方法。以煤制烯烃投资项目内部收益率、投资回收期、财务净现值、税后利润和单位利润CO2排放量为主要目标,以聚烯烃价格、煤炭价格、建设投资及碳税税率为表征市场不确定性的4个变量,建立煤制烯烃技术经济分析模型。根据该模型,绘制了预测公式曲面图和等高线图,并在此基础上开展了敏感性分析和不确定性分析。敏感性分析表明聚烯烃价格变化与煤炭价格变化对各评价指标的影响最显著;利用Monte Carlo模拟的方法量化考察了市场不确定条件下煤制烯烃技术的经济性以及各风险因素对评价指标的影响,分析结果表明,在市场低迷情况下,当聚烯烃价格处于6000~8000元/吨、煤炭价格处于100~300元/吨的低位时,煤制烯烃仍可盈利。
[Abstract]:A method for technical and economic analysis of modern coal chemical projects under uncertain market conditions is established. Taking the internal rate of return, investment payback period, financial net present value, after-tax profit and CO2 emissions per unit profit as the main objectives, taking the price of polyolefin, the price of coal, Construction investment and carbon tax rate are the four variables to characterize the uncertainty of the market, and a technical and economic analysis model for the production of olefin from coal is established. According to the model, the surface map and contour map of the prediction formula are drawn, and sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis are carried out on this basis. Sensitivity analysis showed that the price change of polyolefin and coal price had the most significant influence on the evaluation index. The economic efficiency of olefin production from coal under uncertain market conditions and the influence of various risk factors on the evaluation index were quantitatively investigated by using Monte Carlo simulation method. The results showed that under the condition of market depression, when the price of polyolefin was at 6 000 ~ 8 000 yuan / ton, When the price of coal is 300 yuan / ton, the olefin can still be profitable.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学(北京)化学与环境工程学院;北京低碳清洁能源研究所;太原理工大学煤科学与技术教育部和山西省重点实验室;清华大学热能工程系;
【基金】：中国工程院重大咨询项目“碳约束条件下我国能源结构优化研究”(2016-ZD-07)、“中国工程科技知识中心建设——能源专业知识服务系统”(CKCEST-2017-2-4)~~
【分类号】：F426.7;TQ221.2

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