哈萨克斯坦制造业发展研究

发布时间：2019-06-03 16:48

【摘要】：哈萨克斯坦国土辽阔、自然资源丰富,尤其是石油资源,被誉为“第二个中东”,是中亚五国中经济实力最强,最具发展潜力的国家。综合实力在前苏联时期加盟国中排列第三,仅次于俄罗斯和乌克兰。哈萨克斯坦的制造业是在前苏联时期发展起来的,在苏联卫国战争到二战结束的时期里苏联中部地区的部分制造业搬迁至哈萨克斯坦带动地方经济的发展。50年代,哈萨克斯坦制造业随着农业的发展而形成。80年代哈萨克斯坦制造业各部门产品相对丰富,但苏联长期的行政命令体制阻碍了制造业的进一步发展与全苏经济一道,哈萨克斯坦制造业在80年代发展停滞不前。受前苏联推行的“劳动分工”政策影响,哈萨克斯坦制造业结构发展缓慢。独立后,哈萨克斯坦的经济增长,对外贸易,引进外资,就业和居民人均收入等方面取得了较好的成就。目前,哈萨克斯坦经济发展主要依靠能源的出口,但是,这种产业结构的单一,造成产业结构的不均衡,特别是,制造业在经济发展中的比重和贡献较低,因此,哈萨克斯坦政府先后提出“加速工业创新发展国家纲要”,“光明之路”新经济计划,“哈萨克斯坦-2030”战略和哈萨克斯坦-2050”战略,其主要目标和核心内容针对发展哈萨克斯坦制造业的。本文在上述背景和研究思路下研究哈国制造业发展。首先、从制造业相关理论和哈国战略政策出发,通过钱纳里标准化模式和霍夫曼系数来评价哈萨克斯坦制造业发展水平。根据钱纳里的工业化发展阶段标准结合历年来哈萨克斯坦的人均GDP来判断,判断结果为哈国处于工业化高级阶段。其次,对哈国制造业结构现状进行了阐述,制造业占工业比重不高,哈国制造业结构中重型工业领域占主导地位,制造业结构不调整,发现制造业集聚现象。再次、通过产业集聚指标的测度分析了哈国制造业集聚程度。运用区位熵指数分析哈国16个地区的空间格局,经过数据处理后出现哈国10个地区专业化水平高于全国水平,制造业集聚度十分明显,五个地区的集聚度劣势。运用基尼系数分析行业的空间格局是否平衡,经过计算后出现哈国制造业内部结构空间格局不均衡,烟草制品业和焦炭和精炼石油产品制造空间格局上出现高度集聚现象,造纸及纸制品业等11个制造业领域分散集聚。最终、运用计量经济学分析方法,分析了哈萨克斯坦制造业对经济增长的影响。经过建立回归模型,分析制造业对GDP、就业、对外贸的影响,结果为制造业能促进GDP、就业、对外贸易的增长。
[Abstract]:Kazakhstan is a country with a vast territory and rich natural resources, especially petroleum resources, and is known as the "Second Middle East", and is one of the most powerful and developing countries in the five Central Asian countries. The comprehensive strength ranked third among the former Soviet Union countries, second only to Russia and Ukraine. The manufacturing of Kazakhstan was developed in the period of the former Soviet Union, and part of the manufacturing industry in the central part of the Soviet Union moved to Kazakhstan to drive the development of the local economy during the war of the Soviet Union and the end of the Second World War. With the development of agriculture, the manufacturing industry of Kazakhstan is relatively rich in the 1980s, but the long-term executive order system of the Soviet Union has hindered the further development of the manufacturing industry with the whole-Soviet economy, and the development of Kazakhstan's manufacturing industry has stagnated in the 1980s. The "division of labor" policy of the former Soviet Union has influenced the development of the manufacturing structure of Kazakhstan. After independence, Kazakhstan's economic growth, foreign trade, the introduction of foreign capital, employment and the per capita income of the population have made good achievements. At present, the economic development of Kazakhstan mainly depends on the export of energy. However, the single structure of this kind of industrial structure leads to the imbalance of the industrial structure, in particular, the specific gravity and contribution of the manufacturing industry in the economic development is relatively low. Therefore, the government of Kazakhstan has put forward the "National Platform for Accelerating the Development of Industrial Innovation" successively, The new economic plan, the Kazakhstan-2030 "strategy and the Kazakhstan-2050" strategy, the main objectives and the core content of which are aimed at the development of the manufacturing industry in Kazakhstan. This paper studies the development of the country's manufacturing industry under the above-mentioned background and research ideas. First, in that light of the industry-related theory and the state-of-the-nation strategic policy, the development level of Kazakhstan's manufacturing industry is evaluated through the standard model of the money and the huffman factor. according to the standard of the industrial development stage in channa, the per capita GDP of kazakhstan has been determined in the past year, The result of judgment is that the country is in the advanced stage of industrialization. Secondly, the present situation of the manufacturing structure of the country is described, the manufacturing industry is not high, the heavy-duty industrial field in the manufacturing structure of the country is dominant, the manufacturing structure is not adjusted, and the manufacturing agglomeration phenomenon is found. By means of the measure of the industrial agglomeration index, the paper analyzes the spatial pattern of the 16 regions of the country by means of the location entropy index. After the data processing, the specialization level of the 10 regions of the country is higher than that of the whole country, and the concentration of the manufacturing industry is very obvious. The spatial pattern of the industry is balanced by using the Gini coefficient. After the calculation, the spatial pattern of the internal structure of the manufacturing industry of the country is not balanced, and a high degree of aggregation occurs in the manufacturing space pattern of the tobacco production industry and the coke and the refined petroleum products. In the end, the influence of manufacturing industry on the growth of economy is analyzed by means of econometric analysis method, and the influence of manufacturing industry on GDP, employment and foreign trade is analyzed through the establishment of regression model. The result is that manufacturing can promote the growth of GDP, employment and foreign trade.
【学位授予单位】：新疆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F427

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