中国能源部门投资对巴基斯坦电力危机的影响：输电损耗与能量混合分析
发布时间：2021-04-17 22:20
中巴经济走廊（CPEC）是中国“一带一路”倡议（BRI）所规划的六大走廊之一。它的建设使世界银行重新预测了巴基斯坦的经济增长趋势:对其国内生产总值（GDP）年均增长率预估值从原来的5.4%增至5.8%。然而,重新预估的增长率仍然低于国际平均标准,其原因主要是巴基斯坦的能源危机。能源危机使巴基斯坦的GDP年均增长率大约减少了2%。据估计,在中国对巴基斯坦基础设施建造的投资中,大约60%投入了电力行业。这也是习近平提出的“一带一路”倡议的主要原则之一。中国能源部门对于基础设施发展的投资巨大,大约相当于巴基斯坦国民生产总值的20%;因此,研究这样一笔巨大投资对于巴基斯坦能源困境的影响具有重要意义。由于所有的项目尚处于发展阶段,因此通过理论手段预测其影响的可能性受到限制,本文选择了案例研究的手段,使用量化分析和定性分析的方法获得研究依据。本研究首先对现有文献进行了元分析,然后利用斯皮尔曼等级相关方法获得了数据。相关性分析的结果显著:47%的研究表明了“未进行适当的规划”可能是中国的投资未能全面解决巴基斯坦能源危机遇到的一大阻碍;64%研究表明电力传输损耗也是阻碍之一;还有64%的研究表明中国投...
【文章来源】：中国科学技术大学安徽省 211工程院校 985工程院校
【文章页数】：204 页
【学位级别】：博士
【文章目录】：
摘要
Abstract
Acknowledgement
List of Abbreviations
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.1.1 The Power Crisis of Pakistan
1.1.2 Energy Policies of Pakistan
1.1.3 The 5-E-Approach to Analyze Energy Policies of Pakistan
1.2 Statement of problem
1.3 Purpose and Objective of the study
1.4 Significance/Contribution
1.5 Composition of the Study
Chapter 2 Literature Review
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Global Studies Focusing on Energy and Economic Growth Nexus
2.3 Literature on Pakistan's Case of Energy & Economic Output Nexus
2.4 Literature on Electric Power Transmission Losses in Pakistan
2.5 Literature on Furnace Oil for Electricity and BoP Constrained Growth
2.6 Literature Concerning CPEC and Pakistan's Energy Crisis
2.7 Theoretical Framework of the Research
2.8 Summary
Chapter 3 Variables Data and Methodology
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Variables Selected
3.2.1 Selected Variables for the Statistical Validation of Meta-Analysis
3.2.2 Selected Variables for the Direct Impact Analysis
3.2.3 Selected Variables for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.3 Data and Statistics
3.3.1 Data for the Validation of the Meta-Analysis Test
3.3.2 Data for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.3.3 Data for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.4 Methodology
3.4.1 Methodology Assumed and Reasons for Adopting Meta-Analysis
3.4.2 Methodology for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.4.3 Methodology for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.4.4 Adopted Tests for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.4.5 Adopted Tests for the Indirect causal Analysis
3.4.6 Softwares Utilized
Chapter 4 CPEC and Energy Sector a Meta-Analytic Review
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 Chinese Infrastructure Investments in Pakistan for the Development of CPEC
4.1.2 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Transport Sector
4.1.3 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Industrial Sector
4.1.4 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Agriculture Sector
4.2 History of Pakistan's Energy-Mix for Electric Power Generation
4.3 Pakistan's Future Electricity Planning
4.3.1 Future Energy Projects Proposed under the CPEC
4.4 Statistical Meta Analytic Review
4.4.1 Data Analysis
4.4.2 Results
4.5 Summary
4.5.1 Economic Performance
4.5.2 Electricity Distribution Losses and Obsolete Technology
4.5.3 Poor Energy Policy Planning
4.5.4 Sustainable Energy-Mix Development
Chapter 5 Direct Impact Analysis（Impact of Electricity Crisis and Electricity Production throughFurnace Oil & Transmission losses on Economic Growth of Pakistan）
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The Direct Causal Analysis
5.2.1 Cragg Donald Test
5.2.2 GMM Estimated Results
5.2.3 Robustness Check
5.3 Summary
Chapter 6 Indirect Impact Analysis（Mapping BOP Constrain Economic Growth in Pakistan）
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Indirect Causal Analysis Mapping BOP Constrained Economic Growth in Pakistan
6.2.1 Identification of BOP Constraint within the Economy of Pakistan
6.2.2 Results from the ARDL model
6.3 Summary
Chapter 7 Discussion on Results
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Chinese Investments and Pakistan's Power Production through Oil
7.3 Chinese Investments and Electric Power Transmission Losses
7.4 Chinese Energy Investments and Pakistan's Energy Crisis
7.5 Projections for Electricity Losses and Sustainable Energy-Mix
7.6 Summary
Chapter 8 Conclusion and Recommendations
8.1 Conclusion
8.2 Policy Recommendations
8.2.1 Focus on Demand-Side as well as on the Supply-Side
8.2.2 Reforming Energy Governance and Engaging Local Think Tanks
8.2.3 Diversifying Sources of Reviewable Electric Power Production
8.2.4 Augmenting Electricity Production Through Pakistan's Indigenous Coal
8.2.5 Automate Pakistan Electric Power System
8.2.6 Learning from the Experiences of Other Countries
8.3 Limitations of the Study
8.4 Further Research Directions
Bibliography
Appendix-A
Papers Published During Research
本文编号：3144233
【文章来源】：中国科学技术大学安徽省 211工程院校 985工程院校
【文章页数】：204 页
【学位级别】：博士
【文章目录】：
摘要
Abstract
Acknowledgement
List of Abbreviations
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.1.1 The Power Crisis of Pakistan
1.1.2 Energy Policies of Pakistan
1.1.3 The 5-E-Approach to Analyze Energy Policies of Pakistan
1.2 Statement of problem
1.3 Purpose and Objective of the study
1.4 Significance/Contribution
1.5 Composition of the Study
Chapter 2 Literature Review
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Global Studies Focusing on Energy and Economic Growth Nexus
2.3 Literature on Pakistan's Case of Energy & Economic Output Nexus
2.4 Literature on Electric Power Transmission Losses in Pakistan
2.5 Literature on Furnace Oil for Electricity and BoP Constrained Growth
2.6 Literature Concerning CPEC and Pakistan's Energy Crisis
2.7 Theoretical Framework of the Research
2.8 Summary
Chapter 3 Variables Data and Methodology
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Variables Selected
3.2.1 Selected Variables for the Statistical Validation of Meta-Analysis
3.2.2 Selected Variables for the Direct Impact Analysis
3.2.3 Selected Variables for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.3 Data and Statistics
3.3.1 Data for the Validation of the Meta-Analysis Test
3.3.2 Data for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.3.3 Data for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.4 Methodology
3.4.1 Methodology Assumed and Reasons for Adopting Meta-Analysis
3.4.2 Methodology for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.4.3 Methodology for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.4.4 Adopted Tests for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.4.5 Adopted Tests for the Indirect causal Analysis
3.4.6 Softwares Utilized
Chapter 4 CPEC and Energy Sector a Meta-Analytic Review
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 Chinese Infrastructure Investments in Pakistan for the Development of CPEC
4.1.2 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Transport Sector
4.1.3 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Industrial Sector
4.1.4 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Agriculture Sector
4.2 History of Pakistan's Energy-Mix for Electric Power Generation
4.3 Pakistan's Future Electricity Planning
4.3.1 Future Energy Projects Proposed under the CPEC
4.4 Statistical Meta Analytic Review
4.4.1 Data Analysis
4.4.2 Results
4.5 Summary
4.5.1 Economic Performance
4.5.2 Electricity Distribution Losses and Obsolete Technology
4.5.3 Poor Energy Policy Planning
4.5.4 Sustainable Energy-Mix Development
Chapter 5 Direct Impact Analysis（Impact of Electricity Crisis and Electricity Production throughFurnace Oil & Transmission losses on Economic Growth of Pakistan）
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The Direct Causal Analysis
5.2.1 Cragg Donald Test
5.2.2 GMM Estimated Results
5.2.3 Robustness Check
5.3 Summary
Chapter 6 Indirect Impact Analysis（Mapping BOP Constrain Economic Growth in Pakistan）
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Indirect Causal Analysis Mapping BOP Constrained Economic Growth in Pakistan
6.2.1 Identification of BOP Constraint within the Economy of Pakistan
6.2.2 Results from the ARDL model
6.3 Summary
Chapter 7 Discussion on Results
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Chinese Investments and Pakistan's Power Production through Oil
7.3 Chinese Investments and Electric Power Transmission Losses
7.4 Chinese Energy Investments and Pakistan's Energy Crisis
7.5 Projections for Electricity Losses and Sustainable Energy-Mix
7.6 Summary
Chapter 8 Conclusion and Recommendations
8.1 Conclusion
8.2 Policy Recommendations
8.2.1 Focus on Demand-Side as well as on the Supply-Side
8.2.2 Reforming Energy Governance and Engaging Local Think Tanks
8.2.3 Diversifying Sources of Reviewable Electric Power Production
8.2.4 Augmenting Electricity Production Through Pakistan's Indigenous Coal
8.2.5 Automate Pakistan Electric Power System
8.2.6 Learning from the Experiences of Other Countries
8.3 Limitations of the Study
8.4 Further Research Directions
Bibliography
Appendix-A
Papers Published During Research
本文编号：3144233
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