刘易斯转折期的通胀及其治理——日本、韩国和中国台湾的经验及启示

发布时间：2017-12-26 16:41

本文关键词：刘易斯转折期的通胀及其治理——日本、韩国和中国台湾的经验及启示　出处：《经济学家》2014年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：从近年来我国农村剩余劳动力数量、农业劳动力占比、农业劳动生产率和劳动力工资水平的变动趋势来看,我国已步入刘易斯转折期。国际经验表明,刘易斯转折期内,部分国家的CPI均值上升,但高通胀并不必然出现;同时通胀也表现出一些阶段性特征,包括CPI与PPI持续背离,服务和劳动密集型产品的价格涨幅高于其它产品等。从日本、韩国和中国台湾刘易斯转折期通胀治理的经验看,今后一段时期我国在应对通胀时,要适当提高通货膨胀容忍度,要不断完善价格调控的法律法规和行政体系,同时应注重需求管理政策与供给管理政策相结合,注重以结构性政策应对特定因素引发的通胀。
[Abstract]:Judging from the changing trend of rural surplus labor force, agricultural labor ratio, agricultural labor productivity and labor wage level in recent years, China has entered the Lewis transition period. International experience shows that during the Lewis turning period, the CPI value of some countries increased, but high inflation did not necessarily occur. Meanwhile, inflation also showed some characteristics, including CPI and PPI, and the price increase of services and labor-intensive products was higher than other products. From Japan, South Korea and Taiwan China Lewis turning point of inflation management experience, for a period of time in China in response to inflation, to improve the tolerance of inflation, to constantly improve the price control laws and regulations and administrative system, and should focus on the demand management policies and supply management policy combination, pay attention to structural policies to deal with the specific factors of inflation.
【作者单位】：国家发展和改革委员会经济研究所;
【分类号】：F822.5;F823.13;F823.126
【正文快照】： 一、引言关于刘易斯转折与通胀间关系的研究主要有两方面。一是对刘易斯转折与通胀水平之间关系的研究。一部分人认为刘易斯转折会推高通胀水平。刘易斯转折会带动劳动力工资上涨,一方面,工资上涨本身可能推动价格中枢上升[1];另一方面劳动力成本上涨会推动农产品价格上涨,并

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