我国通货膨胀区域差异的实证研究

发布时间：2017-12-26 18:27

本文关键词：我国通货膨胀区域差异的实证研究　出处：《统计研究》2014年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：理论上有效的货币政策应使得全国各区域间不存在或只存在较小的通货膨胀差异,但统计数据显示我国存在较大的通货膨胀区域差异。本文利用动态因子模型将通货膨胀区域差异分解为受全国影响的共同因子和受各自区域影响的区域因子,并利用ARDL模型和状态空间模型分析共同因子和区域因子的主要因素。实证研究结果发现我国通货膨胀区域差异主要由共同因子所主导,并且会随着全国经济发展水平的提高呈减小的趋势,但与货币供给量的增长成正相关;消费结构部门差异是区域因子产生的重要原因。文章提出可选用差别化的货币政策工具,实施能有效缩小区域收入和消费差距的财政政策和产业政策协调配合策略来实现物价稳定目标的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Theoretically, effective monetary policy should not exist or exist only small inflation differences among different regions of the country, but statistics show that there are large regional differences in inflation in China. In this paper, we use dynamic factor model to divide the regional difference of inflation into the common factors which are affected by the whole country and the regional factors affected by their respective regions. We also use the ARDL model and the state space model to analyze the main factors of the common factors and the regional factors. The empirical results show that China's regional differences in inflation mainly by the common factor leading, and with the national economic development level was decreased, but with the growth of the money supply is positively related to the consumption structure; the Department difference is an important reason for the regional factor. The paper suggests that we should adopt differentiated monetary policy tools, implement fiscal policy and industrial policy coordination strategy that can effectively narrow the regional income and consumption gap, and make policy recommendations to achieve the goal of price stability.
【作者单位】：湖南大学金融与统计学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目“财政政策和信贷政策与产业政策的协调配合研究”(12AZD035) 湖南大学青年教师成长计划经费的资助
【分类号】：F822.5;F224.0
【正文快照】： 一、引言经济学家们对通货膨胀的成因及其对经济运行的各种效应做了大量的研究。这些研究主要从两个方面展开:一是测度通货膨胀区域差异的大小与变化趋势;二是探讨导致通货膨胀区域差异产生的深层次原因。近年来有关通货膨胀差异产生原因的研究大致可分为以下三类。其一是由于

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