日本“藏汇于民”对中国的启示

发布时间：2018-01-01 21:18

本文关键词：日本“藏汇于民”对中国的启示　出处：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2006年2月首度超过日本以来,我国的外汇储备数量已连续数年稳居世界第一,并且保持着每年数千亿美元的增长速度持续积累。连续多年的经常账户和资本账户顺差是我国外汇收入的主要来源,而人民币升值趋势及我国良好的经济发展势头也吸引着大量国际游资进入,成为外汇收入的又一来源；此外,我国自从1994年外汇管理体制改革以来确立的银行结售汇制是将我国获得的巨额外汇收入转化为外汇储备的重要制度性因素。对于中国而言,规模巨大的外汇储备是一把“双刃剑”。其积极影响有：巨额外汇储备增强了我国的综合国力,提高了我国的国际清偿能力和国际资信,进一步提升了我国对外商投资与对外融资的吸引力；增强了我国应对国际金融风险和突发事件的实力与对外汇市场进行干预的能力,有利于维护国家金融安全；为人民币最终实现经常项目下的可自由兑换创造了必要条件。然而,近年来超常增长的外汇储备也带来了一些负面影响。一是外汇市场上外币供过于求导致人民币升值的国际压力不断加大从而抑制了我国对外贸易的增长；二是规模越来越大的外汇储备加重了央行的冲销压力,外汇占款的增大影响了基础货币的投放,制约货币政策的有效性；而央行为维持人民币汇率稳定而增发货币导致市场中流动性过剩,加剧了国内的通货膨胀压力与资本市场泡沫；三是增加了储备成本与汇率风险。由于我国巨额外汇储备的投资以安全性与流动性为主导原则,因此主要投资于美国国债等美元资产,尤其在美国政府为应对次贷危机而实行数轮量化宽松政策的背景下,我国外汇储备面临着巨大的汇率风险。国内外学术界近年来有大量关于我国外汇储备的研究,对我国外汇储备不断积累的原因、效应进行了深入的探讨并提出了许多应对巨额外汇储备的政策建议。但是这些文献主要是从转变巨额外汇储备资产运作方式的角度提出解决方案,比如调整外汇储备的币种结构与资产结构、借鉴国际经验成立国家外汇投资公司或改革当前我国对外汇储备进行管理的单层体制、将外汇储备转化为黄金、石油、矿产等实物资产或战略资产方案、将外汇储备注资国有商业银行与社保基金方案等,其中也有学者响应吴晓灵副行长提出的“藏汇于民”的建议而提出自己的见解。但对于借鉴与我国外汇储备增长情况相似的日本的经验,实现中国从“藏汇于国”向“藏汇于民”的转变,较少有文献详细提及。本文针对我国长期实行的“藏汇于国”的外汇管理政策及其造成的外汇储备规模不断扩大带来的消极影响,通过研究日本成功贯彻“藏汇于民”战略的经验,立足于我国的现实情况,从我国汇率形成机制、金融市场、外汇法律法规三个层面提出中国为实现从“藏汇于国”向“藏汇于民”的转变应该采取的详细对策,为我国更深入的推进“藏汇于民”提供强有力的理论依据与政策指导。鉴于导致我国外汇资产持续增长的源头在短期内难以改变,全方位多角度地深入研究我国如何在保证外汇市场稳定的前提下促进“藏汇于民”,从而提高外汇资产的收益率就显得越发的重要和紧迫。“藏汇于民”对于调整我国“宽进严出”的外汇政策取向,从政策源头上解决外汇储备过快的增长具有重要意义。从而有助于缓解人民币升值和通货膨胀的压力,以及恢复货币政策的独立性。并且对于刺激居民消费以及我国金融机构参与国际竞争的现实需要,都将发挥积极作用。最后,文章得出结论：“藏汇于民”政策并不是政府“一厢情愿”就可以顺利实施的。当前,人民币不断升值、外汇投资渠道相对单调、民间外汇投资经验不足等障碍无疑会抑制民间持汇、用汇的积极性,从而阻碍“藏汇于民”政策发挥作用。从这个角度讲,本文中提出的三个建议能够缓解民间对政府“藏汇于民”的排斥,消除民间保留外汇、使用外汇的后顾之忧,进而真正实现“藏汇于民”和“藏富于民”。
[Abstract]:Since the first of February 2006 , our country ' s foreign exchange reserves have been steadily in the world for several years , and the annual growth rate of tens of millions of dollars has been accumulated annually . For many years , the surplus of current account and capital account is the main source of foreign exchange income in our country , and the trend of RMB appreciation and the favorable economic development trend of our country have attracted a lot of international capital to enter and become another source of foreign exchange income ; moreover , the bank settlement and sales system established since the reform of the foreign exchange management system in 1994 is an important institutional factor to transform the huge foreign exchange income obtained by our country into foreign exchange reserve . In the case of China , the large - scale foreign exchange reserve is a " double - edged sword " . Its positive influence is : the huge foreign exchange reserve enhances our country ' s comprehensive national strength , enhances our country ' s international liquidity and international credit , and further promotes China ' s foreign investment and foreign financing . In recent years , there has been a great deal of research on foreign exchange reserves in China , and the reasons and effects of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in China have been discussed in depth and many policy suggestions to deal with the huge foreign exchange reserves have been put forward . However , these documents are mainly derived from the transformation of the currency structure and asset structure of the foreign exchange reserve , the establishment of the national foreign exchange investment company or the reform of the current China ' s foreign exchange reserve fund scheme , and the foreign exchange reserve into the state - owned commercial bank and the social security fund scheme . In view of the negative influence of foreign exchange management policy and the expanding scale of foreign exchange reserve caused by China ' s long - term practice , this paper points out the important and urgent need of China to promote the change of foreign exchange assets from the source of policy . Finally , the article concludes that the policy of " Tibetan foreign exchange " can be implemented smoothly without government ' s " one - sided " policy . Currently , obstacles such as RMB appreciation , relatively monotonous foreign exchange investment channel and insufficient experience of private foreign exchange investment will undoubtedly inhibit the role of " Tibetan foreign exchange in the people " . From this point of view , the three suggestions put forward in this paper can alleviate the government ' s rejection of the government ' s collection of foreign exchange , eliminate the worries of foreign exchange and use foreign exchange , and thus truly realize the " collection of the people " and " hidden rich in the people " .

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F833.13;F832.6

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