差异性消费需求——巴拉萨—萨缪尔森模型的一个扩展

发布时间：2018-01-02 02:02

本文关键词：差异性消费需求——巴拉萨—萨缪尔森模型的一个扩展　出处：《国际经贸探索》2011年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应指出,一国在长期的经济增长过程中实际汇率会出现升值。2005年7月21日人民币汇率改革以来,人民币兑美元汇率呈现出单边升值的趋势,且目前人们对人民币汇率形成了强烈的升值预期。因此,运用巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应研究人民币实际汇率具有一定的借鉴意义。鉴于传统巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的分析仅限于供给层面,文章引入了差异性消费需求这一假设条件,在不改变原模型核心假设的基础上,从供需双方面进行了拓展分析,并得出了更加符合现实意义的结论。此外,文章利用中美两国1990～2007年的数据,进行了实证分析。实证结果显示,改进后的模型显著增强了对人民币实际汇率的解释力。
[Abstract]:The Balassa-Samuelson effect points out that a country's real exchange rate will appreciate in the course of long-term economic growth. Since July 21st 2005, the RMB exchange rate has been reformed. RMB / USD exchange rate shows a trend of unilateral appreciation, and at present people have formed a strong appreciation expectation of RMB exchange rate. Using Barassa-Samuelson effect to study the real exchange rate of RMB has certain reference significance, since the analysis of traditional Balassa-Samuelson effect is limited to the supply level. This paper introduces the hypothesis of different consumption demand, and on the basis of not changing the core hypothesis of the original model, it develops the analysis from the two aspects of supply and demand, and draws a conclusion that is more in line with the practical significance. Based on the data of China and the United States from 1990 to 2007, this paper makes an empirical analysis. The empirical results show that the improved model can significantly enhance the interpretation of the real exchange rate of RMB.
【作者单位】：泰康资产管理有限公司;北京大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F224;F832.6
【正文快照】： 2005年础、7月参2考1日一,篮我子国货启币动进了行人调民节币、汇有率管制理度的改浮革动,汇实率行制以。市之场后供人求民为币基出现单边升值的趋势,并且市场对人民币名义汇率升值具有强烈的预期。在金融风暴席卷全球之际,人民币名义汇率进一步升值,将使我国出口行业雪上加

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