我国商业银行价值评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 16:17

本文关键词：我国商业银行价值评估方法研究　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为特殊企业的商业银行，其价值评估吸引着众多利益相关者的关注。随着外资金融机构的纷纷入股以及国内商业银行间合并、收购等资本运作活动的频繁，科学合理的评估商业银行价值有利于投资者进行投资价值分析，，有利于商业银行所有者更好的进行价值管理,并为银行重组并购、股权交易等经济行为提供决策依据。笔者首先对四种主流企业价值评估方法的理论及其适用条件进行了回顾，然后分析了商业银行价值驱动因素对估值方法选择的影响，并对经典估值方法在商业银行的适用性进行分析，认为股利折现模型最适合于商业银行价值评估。在企业价值评估方法理论分析的基础上，本文对我国宏观经济和银行业行业发展趋势进行了分析，运用股利折现模型，以招商银行为例，阐述了使用三阶段股利折现模型估值的具体步骤及参数计算，最终得到招商银行的内在价值。本文最后对沪深两市12家样本银行的评估价值与流通市场价值进行假设检验，发现两者之间存在高度的相关性，从而论证了股利折现模型在商业银行估值中的适用性。
[Abstract]:As a commercial bank of special enterprises , its value appraisal attracts the attention of many stakeholders . As the capital operation activities such as merger and acquisition of foreign capital financial institutions and the merger and acquisition of domestic commercial banks are frequent , scientific and reasonable appraisal of the value of commercial banks is beneficial to investors ' investment value analysis , which is beneficial to the better value management of the owners of commercial banks , and provides the basis for decision - making for economic behaviors such as merger and acquisition of banks and equity transactions . Firstly , the author reviews the theory and the application conditions of the four mainstream enterprise value evaluation methods , then analyzes the influence of the value driving factors on the valuation method , and analyzes the applicability of the classical valuation method in commercial banks , and concludes that the dividend discount model is the most suitable for commercial bank value evaluation . Based on the theory analysis of the enterprise value assessment method , this paper analyzes the development trend of macro - economy and banking industry in China , uses the dividend discount model , expounds the concrete steps and parameter calculation of the valuation of the three - stage dividend discount model , and finally obtains the intrinsic value of the Merchants Bank . In the end , the paper makes a hypothesis test on the evaluation value and the circulation market value of 12 sample banks in Shanghai and Shenzhen , and finds the high correlation between them , thus the applicability of the dividend discount model in the valuation of commercial banks is demonstrated .

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.33

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